by Recent News on April 17, 2005
Thanks to all the folks on disboards.com for the discussion. Here’s a summary of where I think we’re at:
I know the predictions have changed frequently recently, but it’s because we’re looking at new data (the trip planner), and old data in new ways. I appreciate all of the comments and suggestions everyone’s sent on this topic.
Let’s summarize where we’re at:
o Using official Magic Kingdom park hours from 2004 and 2005 as a guide, the expected crowd rating would be 6 through 8.
o Using the trip planner data, it varies from 7 to 9.
o Using historical hotel occupancy rates for the same time last year, it varies between 6 and 8.
Official park hours are a rough estimate, as Disney usually closes the park on the hour or half-hour. Hotel occupancy rates are usually given to the tenth of a percent, and the trip planner data is actual numbers.
Okay, so the numbers range from 6 to 9 depending on the day. Nothing’s saying the next two weeks are going to be a bunch of 3’s, which is something (it’s something, right? ) On the other hand, it’s not Christmas, either (but it’s close). This might be as close as we get to an estimate, until we know what the actual crowd conditions were two weeks from now. Let’s hope (seriously) we get consistent weather for the next two weeks, so we don’t have to factor that out.
* Last year’s hotel occupancy rates indicate 5 all week. Doesn’t take into account the 50th celebration.
* Trip planner says 7s and 8s.
* MK is open 86 hours, a solid 5 on the scale.
Again, nothing lower than a 5, with a couple of indications it may be higher. Another mitigating factor for that week is that Epcot’s closed one day after 3, so crowds will probably either stay away (if they don’t have park hopping options on their tix), or head to the MK after 3.
Thoughts? Suggestions? Comments? Feel free to email me. If we could have a giant conference call on this, we would.