Archive for April, 2005

Disney World Trip Planner Data Update

by on April 17, 2005

Thanks to all the folks on disboards.com for the discussion. Here’s a summary of where I think we’re at:

I know the predictions have changed frequently recently, but it’s because we’re looking at new data (the trip planner), and old data in new ways. I appreciate all of the comments and suggestions everyone’s sent on this topic.

Let’s summarize where we’re at:

April 17-30

o Using official Magic Kingdom park hours from 2004 and 2005 as a guide, the expected crowd rating would be 6 through 8.
o Using the trip planner data, it varies from 7 to 9.
o Using historical hotel occupancy rates for the same time last year, it varies between 6 and 8.

Official park hours are a rough estimate, as Disney usually closes the park on the hour or half-hour. Hotel occupancy rates are usually given to the tenth of a percent, and the trip planner data is actual numbers.

Okay, so the numbers range from 6 to 9 depending on the day. Nothing’s saying the next two weeks are going to be a bunch of 3′s, which is something (it’s something, right? :-) ) On the other hand, it’s not Christmas, either (but it’s close). This might be as close as we get to an estimate, until we know what the actual crowd conditions were two weeks from now. Let’s hope (seriously) we get consistent weather for the next two weeks, so we don’t have to factor that out.

May 1-7

* Last year’s hotel occupancy rates indicate 5 all week. Doesn’t take into account the 50th celebration.
* Trip planner says 7s and 8s.
* MK is open 86 hours, a solid 5 on the scale.
Again, nothing lower than a 5, with a couple of indications it may be higher. Another mitigating factor for that week is that Epcot’s closed one day after 3, so crowds will probably either stay away (if they don’t have park hopping options on their tix), or head to the MK after 3.

Thoughts? Suggestions? Comments? Feel free to email me. If we could have a giant conference call on this, we would.

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Unofficial Guide Trip Planner Information

by on April 17, 2005

New graphs showing the number of families entering trips in the Unofficial Guide’s online Trip Planner, and the crowd level computed from those numbers.

These graphs plot the number of Unofficial Guide Trip Planner users saying they’ll be in WDW on specific dates in 2005, based on data entered in the Unofficial Guide’s online trip planner. We assume each user represents one family. When looking at the number of families graph, therefore, a value of 108 on February 26, 2005 means that one hundred and eight families said they’d be in Walt Disney World on that date. The Trip Planner currently contains data on more than 6,300 trips for 2005, representing more than 40,000 “vacation days” in Walt Disney World.

Using that trip information, we’ve tried to predict crowd levels until June 9, 2005, using the same scale of 1-10 as published in the 2005 book. To do this we correlated known wait times to known crowd levels from previous days in 2005, and applied the results to future days. For example, we know the peak wait times for headliner attractions in the Magic Kingdom on March 29, 2005 were these:

Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: 90 minutes
Splash Mountain: 105 minutes
Space Mountain: 120 minutes

This translates to a “9″ on the Unofficial Guide’s crowd level scale. Next, we know from the trip planner that 240 families had entered trip information for March 29, 2005. Using that information, we assigned crowd levels to every day between now and June 9. Here’s the same data in chart form:

Date
Trips
Crowd Level
4/17/05
215
8
4/18/05
220
8
4/19/05
223
9
4/20/05
220
8
4/21/05
230
9
4/22/05
233
9
4/23/05
223
9
4/24/05
216
8
4/25/05
216
8
4/26/05
215
8
4/27/05
209
8
4/28/05
209
8
4/29/05
191
7
4/30/05
168
6
5/1/05
205
8
5/2/05
196
7
5/3/05
191
7
5/4/05
194
7
5/5/05
185
7
5/6/05
196
7
5/7/05
206
8
5/8/05
209
8
5/9/05
212
8
5/10/05
202
8
5/11/05
219
8
5/12/05
216
8
5/13/05
212
8
5/14/05
191
7
5/15/05
187
7
5/16/05
175
7
5/17/05
171
6
5/18/05
175
7
5/19/05
188
7
5/20/05
193
7
5/21/05
212
8
5/22/05
214
8
5/23/05
205
8
5/24/05
202
8
5/25/05
198
8
5/26/05
204
8
5/27/05
185
7
5/28/05
154
6
5/29/05
150
6
5/30/05
147
5
5/31/05
146
5
6/1/05
168
6
6/2/05
158
6
6/3/05
155
6
6/4/05
181
7
6/5/05
182
7
6/6/05
185
7
6/7/05
189
7
6/8/05
193
7
6/9/05
198
8
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