2005 July

14 hours of data collection at the Magic Kingdom this past weekend yielded these results for the Best Days calendar:

The results for our new prediction model continue to be encouraging. Also note that Sunday was slightly busier than Saturday, again consistent with what we’ve seen almost all year. Since our predictions were very close, the average error for our predictions drops to around 5.5 minutes per day since we introduced the new model on May 31.

By popular demand, the next major update to the Best Days calendar will split our recommendations into two main categories: Disney Resort Guests, and Off-Site Guests. And for each of those, we’ll have two sub-categories, for folks arriving at park opening (or Extra Magic Hour), and those arriving later in the day. Look for that update to be done by the end of August 2005. If there’s something specific you’d like us to include, drop me a line: len@touringplans.com.

Here’s a partial look at some of the data we’ve collected in May, June, and July. We use these numbers to test how good our predictions are for the “Best Days” calendar. So far, our estimates are off by an average of about 7 minutes per day. Given the number of variables involved, I think that’s pretty good. We’ll have more data from June shortly. Also, note that two of the three slowest days shown below are Saturdays, consistent with what we’ve observed throught this year.