Archive for July, 2005

Magic Kingdom Crowds And WDW Best Days

by on July 28, 2005

14 hours of data collection at the Magic Kingdom this past weekend yielded these results for the Best Days calendar:

Date
Predicted Peak Wait Time at MK Headliner Attractions
Actual Peak Wait Time
Difference from Predicted Peak
Sat Jul 23
65-74 minutes
70 minutes
0
Sun Jul 24
65-74 minutes
75 minutes
+1

The results for our new prediction model continue to be encouraging. Also note that Sunday was slightly busier than Saturday, again consistent with what we’ve seen almost all year. Since our predictions were very close, the average error for our predictions drops to around 5.5 minutes per day since we introduced the new model on May 31.

By popular demand, the next major update to the Best Days calendar will split our recommendations into two main categories: Disney Resort Guests, and Off-Site Guests. And for each of those, we’ll have two sub-categories, for folks arriving at park opening (or Extra Magic Hour), and those arriving later in the day. Look for that update to be done by the end of August 2005. If there’s something specific you’d like us to include, drop me a line: len@touringplans.com.

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Theme Parks For Best Days Predictor

by on July 11, 2005

Here’s a partial look at some of the data we’ve collected in May, June, and July. We use these numbers to test how good our predictions are for the “Best Days” calendar. So far, our estimates are off by an average of about 7 minutes per day. Given the number of variables involved, I think that’s pretty good. We’ll have more data from June shortly. Also, note that two of the three slowest days shown below are Saturdays, consistent with what we’ve observed throught this year.

Date
Predicted Peak Wait Time at MK Headliner Attractions
Actual Peak Wait Time
Difference from Predicted Peak
Thu May 26
75-84 minutes
60 minutes
-15
Fri May 27
85-94 minutes
95 minutes
+1
Sat May 28
85-94 minutes
80 minutes
-5
Mon Jun 13
75-84 minutes
90 minutes
+6
Wed Jun 15
75-84 minutes
100 minutes
+16
Sat Jun 18
65-74 minutes
70 minutes
0
Mon Jul 4
85-94 minutes
100 minutes
+6
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