Archive for November, 2005
Disney Jersey Week Crowds
by Recent News
on November 14, 2005
Another Jersey Week has passed, and it’s time to reflect on how well our predictions turned out. Here’s the chart for all of last week:
| Date |
Predicted Peak Wait Time at MK Headliner Attractions
|
Actual Peak Wait Time
|
Difference from Predicted Peak
|
| Sun Nov 6 |
65-74 minutes
|
40 minutes
|
-25
|
| Mon Nov 7 |
65-74 minutes
|
80 minutes
|
+6
|
| Tue Nov 8 |
65-74 minutes
|
50 minutes
|
-15
|
| Wed Nov 9 |
65-74 minutes
|
60 minutes
|
-5
|
| Thu Nov 10 |
65-74 minutes
|
70 minutes
|
0
|
| Fri Nov 11 |
65-74 minutes
|
80 minutes
|
+6
|
| Sat Nov 12 |
65-74 minutes
|
70 minutes
|
0
|
| Sun Nov 13 |
45-54 minutes
|
50 minutes
|
0
|
|
Average Error
|
7.2 minutes
|
I’m very happy with these results. Crowds were quite a bit lighter than we expected on Sunday, but pretty close the rest of the week. We don’t know yet how the hotel occupancy numbers look, but we’ll plug them in to the model once we know, probably sometime around Thanksgiving. Once we know those, we’ll re-run the model and update the Best Days calendar. I still think the calendar’s predicting too high by about 1.0 for most weekdays when public schools are in session, and we’ll see if we can get that corrected.
