Archive for November, 2005

Disney Jersey Week Crowds

by on November 14, 2005

Another Jersey Week has passed, and it’s time to reflect on how well our predictions turned out. Here’s the chart for all of last week:

Date
Predicted Peak Wait Time at MK Headliner Attractions
Actual Peak Wait Time
Difference from Predicted Peak
Sun Nov 6
65-74 minutes
40 minutes
-25
Mon Nov 7
65-74 minutes
80 minutes
+6
Tue Nov 8
65-74 minutes
50 minutes
-15
Wed Nov 9
65-74 minutes
60 minutes
-5
Thu Nov 10
65-74 minutes
70 minutes
0
Fri Nov 11
65-74 minutes
80 minutes
+6
Sat Nov 12
65-74 minutes
70 minutes
0
Sun Nov 13
45-54 minutes
50 minutes
0
Average Error
7.2 minutes

I’m very happy with these results. Crowds were quite a bit lighter than we expected on Sunday, but pretty close the rest of the week. We don’t know yet how the hotel occupancy numbers look, but we’ll plug them in to the model once we know, probably sometime around Thanksgiving. Once we know those, we’ll re-run the model and update the Best Days calendar. I still think the calendar’s predicting too high by about 1.0 for most weekdays when public schools are in session, and we’ll see if we can get that corrected.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Google Plus
  • Pinterest