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Unofficial Guide researchers have been pounding the theme park pavement all summer, checking crowd levels and wait times throughout Walt Disney World.
| Date |
Actual Peak Wait (minutes)
|
TouringPlans.com Prediction (minutes)
|
Predicted Wait – Low End of Range (minutes)
|
Predicted Wait – High End of Range (minutes)
|
Difference Between Predicted Range and Actual Wait (minutes)
|
|
05/26/08
|
50
|
60
|
55
|
64
|
5
|
|
05/27/08
|
120 (see note)
|
70
|
65
|
74
|
46
|
|
05/28/08
|
60
|
60
|
55
|
64
|
0
|
|
05/29/09
|
50
|
70
|
65
|
74
|
15
|
|
06/02/08
|
80
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
0
|
|
06/03/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
06/04/08
|
40
|
60
|
55
|
64
|
15
|
|
06/05/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
06/13/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
06/14/08
|
60
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
15
|
|
06/15/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
06/16/08
|
90
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
0
|
|
06/17/08
|
90
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
6
|
|
06/18/08
|
80
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
0
|
|
06/19/08
|
100
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
6
|
|
06/20/08
|
90
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
6
|
|
06/21/08
|
60
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
15
|
|
06/22/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
07/07/08
|
110
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
16
|
|
07/08/08
|
85
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
1
|
|
07/09/08
|
140 (see note)
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
56
|
|
07/10/08
|
70
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
15
|
|
07/11/08
|
80
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
0
|
|
07/12/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
07/13/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
07/14/08
|
80
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
5
|
|
07/15/08
|
100
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
16
|
|
07/16/08
|
90
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
6
|
|
07/17/08
|
90
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
0
|
|
07/18/08
|
80
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
0
|
|
07/19/08
|
60
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
15
|
|
07/20/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
|
07/21/08
|
100
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
6
|
|
07/22/08
|
100
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
16
|
|
07/23/08
|
80
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
0
|
|
07/24/08
|
80
|
90
|
85
|
94
|
5
|
|
07/25/08
|
70
|
80
|
75
|
84
|
5
|
Our predictions are within 9 minutes of the actual waits, on average. Even better: we’re within 5 minutes more than half the time.
That being said, we’re fairly certain the 140- and 120-minute wait times posted on 27 May and 9 July are errors, since the posted wait times in the half-hour before and after those readings are far smaller (in the 90-minute range). We won’t bore you with the technical details of why we think this is true (unless you ask), but we’re confident they are. If we adjust for those two days by assuming the peak wait was 90 minutes, our predictions are about +/- 7 minutes from actual park wait times. That’s pretty good.
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