Our Crowd Calendar predicted crowd levels of 8 at the Magic Kingdom during the week including Thanksgiving. Thanks to our crack research squad and our trusty users of our mobile application Lines we are now able to look back and see how we did. Historically, based on our current model, our estimates are accurate within 8 minutes, 95% of the time.
We see on the chart from November 21 – November 28 that the estimates were pretty close with a couple of exceptions. Crowds in general were heavier than we predicted. This was partly due to the re-opening of Space Mountain.
Space Mountain re-opened on November 24th but did so with a sporadic schedule. When an attraction closes down many times during the day, the wait times tend to spike each time the attraction comes back online. The third column shows an adjustment for the spikes observed at Space Mountain. Even with the adjustment our estimates were too low.
We often get asked about what the crowd level index means in terms of crowd experience. “What does an 8 feel like?” If you were in the parks during Thanksgiving week, let us know how the size of the crowd affected your park experience.
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- How do you use the Crowd Calendar?
- What information would make the Crowd Calendar better?
Our Crowd Calendar is always adjusting to the data we observe and we realize that like any predictive model it is subject to error. Still, we’re always curious how our readers use the calendar when planning their trips.
In the parks and want to know what’s going on? Try out Lines, current and future wait time estimates for every WDW attraction.