Predicting wait times at theme parks is s delicate science but we can get good results by applying the basic principle of statistical forecasting which is: if you collect enough good information about what happened you may be able to predict what will happen. When it comes to brand new attractions like those at the new Cars Land in Disney California Adventure, however, it becomes less about the science and more about experience. Cars Land has no history, no pre-existing wait time information to collect. So, we use our own experience and the experience of others to brainstorm ideas about what we think will happen.
Don’t get me wrong, this is not the first time we have had to deal with new attractions coming online. We have seen attractions like Expedition Everest, Mission: SPACE, Toy Story Mania, Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage and Star Tours 2: The Adventure Continues open their gates for the first time and greatly affect the touring conditions in their respective parks. Typically, we have seen that within 6 to 12 months a new super headliner will settle into its inherent level of popularity. Perhaps the only exception may be Star Tours 2, particularly in Disneyland where we still see wait times that are significantly higher than its predecessor.
Early reports of the new attractions in Cars Land are positive. It seems that these attractions are fresh, exciting and appeal to a wide range of guests. We are expecting that for the first 6 months of operation guests will flock to DCA in order to experience these new attractions for the first time. Some even think that their initial rush of popularity may even extend past the next 12 months. Will these attractions have significant appeal to lure guests to line up for a second and third ride? That is the ultimate question.
Our question for you is:
What do YOU think?