Well, the first few Annual Passholder previews of the new Fantasyland have passed, and the effect on crowds at the Magic Kingdom has been underwhelming–significantly less than our crowd level predictions had suggested.
That’s good news for theme park visitors but bad news for us stats guys. We don’t like estimates that miss the mark, but we stand by our choice to be conservative with our estimates. Predicting crowd levels during new events that have no history can be very difficult. Without historical data to comb through, estimation starts to enter into the realm of guess-timation.
As we do every day, we will still be watching crowds at the Magic Kingdom very closely to see if the crowds remain manageable during the Passholder previews. In the meantime, watch for reductions in our estimates for Magic Kingdom crowds on November 13 and 14.