Last week our predictions performed very well, hitting the mark more than missing it. Several days last week we saw our park level prediction hit the mark in three of the four parks. No prediction missed by more than two index points. This is encouraging especially because we felt a little nervous about our predictions last week given the higher than normal percentage of schools out of session for Spring Break. If you visited the parks this week while your child was out of school consider yourself lucky, we’ve seen busier weeks than this during the same week in the past.
Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up day-to-day last week.
|March 9, 2014 to March 15, 2014|
Our predictions on Sunday hit the mark resort-wide (5) at Magic Kingdom (6) and Epcot (5). We only missed by one at The Studios (‘3′, predicted ‘4’) and Animal Kingdom (‘5′, predicted 4). Our accuracy at Magic Kingdom was impressive given that the 1:00 am closing and 3:00 am Extra Magic Hour closing would normally draw a crowd level at least as high as an ‘8’.
We correctly predicted Magic Kingdom’s crowds again on Monday (7) although resort-wide we predicted a level ‘6’ and it was a level ‘7’. Epcot, The Studios and Animal Kingdom all saw crowds larger than expected although no park exceeded our prediction by more than 2 index levels. Epcot was a ‘7’ (we predicted ‘5’), The Studios a ‘6’ (we predicted ‘5’) and Animal Kingdom was a ‘6’ (we predicted ‘4’).
Predictions were bang-on more often than not on Tuesday as well. Our resort-wide prediction (6), Magic Kingdom (7), Epcot (6) and The Studios (5) all hit the mark. Animal Kingdom was the only exception with a ‘7’, two levels higher than our prediction. Animal Kingdom has been steadily more crowded than expected the last few weeks so we are currently taking a closer look to see if we can determine why.
Epcot and The Studios stayed moderate on Wednesday as predicted with level ‘5’s at both parks. In fact, ‘5’ was the number across the board at all parks as well as resort-wide. At Magic Kingdom most attractions had moderate average posted times except for The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh which proved less popular than normal at a 22-minute average.
We correctly predicted that Magic Kingdom would increase to an ‘8’ on Thursday. Elsewhere we were fairly accurate as well with each of our park estimates accurate within 2 index points. Epcot was a ‘7’ (we predicted ‘5’), The Studios a ‘5’, (we predicted ‘6’) and Animal Kingdom was an ‘8’ (we predicted ‘7’).
Our predictions were spot on again on Friday for the resort-wide number (6), Magic Kingdom (7), Epcot (6) and Animal Kingdom (7). On Friday, The Studios was the exception where crowds underwhelmed at a level ‘4’ on our scale despite our prediction of ‘6’.
On Saturday Magic Kingdom was a ‘6’ (we predicted ‘7’), Epcot was a ‘5’ (we predicted ‘4’), The Studios was a ‘5’ (we predicted ‘6’) and Animal Kingdom was a ‘6’ (we predicted ‘5’). With a resort-wide level of ‘6’ (we predicted ‘5’) that means that all our predictions missed by exactly one index level.
|March 16 to 22, 2014|
The start of spring break is upon us and crowds around Walt Disney World will increase accordingly. We still like March as a time of year to visit however. The weather is nice and although crowds are larger than January and February they are easily manageable with a good touring plan. Other than at Downtown Disney’s Raglan Road, St. Patrick’s Day has little effect on the resort.
To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.
To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.