Join me on Wednesday, March 6, at 2:00 pm EST for an online chat with Canada.com, the online Postmedia Network news site for Canadians. Postmedia is the publisher that brings you The Ottawa Citizen, The Vancouver Sun, The Province, Calgary Herald, Edmonton Journal, and the National Post.

We will be discussing the ins and outs of travelling to Florida for March Break. Join the chat by following the link below:

Canada.com Travel Chat

See you there!

Live Online Chat with Canada.com Tomorrow is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

A curious new Florida law came quietly into effect on January 1, 2013, that requires non-Americans to possess an international driver’s permit, reports The Toronto Star.

Although intended to aid law enforcement in their ability to read licenses in foreign languages, the law has received unexpected backlash from Canadians and British tourists who flock to the Sunshine State each spring. The law has resulted in significant commentary from media and international travel agencies like the Canadian Automobile Assocciation (CAA), which states that Florida regulators are working to alter the law so that English foreign licenses may be accepted without the international permit.

This has brought an interesting twist into my usually benign Disney research trips. In two weeks time I depart for Walt Disney World with a van load of Canadians. Chantale, her son, her cousin, her mother and my two sons are headed for a March Break Disney extravaganza. So the debate begins as to whether we have the time or the inclination to spend the $80 required for the two of us to get the international licence. That’s $25 each for the license, plus the required passport photos.

The only clear message from this story is that nothing is yet clear at all. Law enforcement officials have announced suspension of enforcing the new law while it remains so contentious. Tourism officials seem to be pushing visitors to get the permit out of fear of reprimand. Law makers seem anxious to change the law in order to minimize its effect on tourism.

If you are a subscriber to this blog, chances are you take your travel planning seriously. So it seems reasonable to suggest that having the permit is a good idea. Do so and feel confident that your Disney trip won’t involve a visit to Disney jail – although wouldn’t that be interesting research?

The permit seems notably more important for our many subscribers from Quebec and Brazil, where English is likely not the language of your credentials. Permits can be obtained in Canada from your local CAA office.

New Florida Law Requires International Driving Permits is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

Over the past several weeks wait times at Terror of Terror at Disney’s Hollywood Studios have shown suspicious spikes. We have confirmed that these were due to the temporary shut down of one of the elevator shafts that take guests into the other dimension. Historically, we have found that the shut down of one shaft, although rare, usually results in a posted time that is more than double the wait time from before the shutdown. These shutdowns have been more frequent recently, affecting as many as 5 days out of 7. If I had to guess, I would suspect that during the busy holiday season, Disney may be less likely to shut a shaft down for fear of driving wait times too high. Regardless, we want our holiday touring-planners to be prepared.

Most of you who follow an optimized touring plan will find that Tower is Terror is slotted in the first half the day, which is good, but we want you to be aware that if these temporary shutdowns continue you may come to the queue with a Christmas wait time surprise in the range of 200 to 300 minutes. We have tried to adjust our estimates for the wait times at Tower of Terror, but it is difficult to predict when the elevator shaft will go down. (Pun intended!)

If Tower of Terror is on your must-do list over the holidays, make sure to re-optimize your Hollywood Studios touring plan while in the park. Lines will adjust to the current wait times and the optimizer will adjust as well.

A Notice For Tower Of Terror Over The Holidays is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

Well, the first few Annual Passholder previews of the new Fantasyland have passed, and the effect on crowds at the Magic Kingdom has been underwhelming–significantly less than our crowd level predictions had suggested.

That’s good news for theme park visitors but bad news for us stats guys. We don’t like estimates that miss the mark, but we stand by our choice to be conservative with our estimates. Predicting crowd levels during new events that have no history can be very difficult. Without historical data to comb through, estimation starts to enter into the realm of guess-timation.

As we do every day, we will still be watching crowds at the Magic Kingdom very closely to see if the crowds remain manageable during the Passholder previews. In the meantime, watch for reductions in our estimates for Magic Kingdom crowds on November 13 and 14.

Report On Predictions For Magic Kingdom Crowds During Fantasyland Previews is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

One of our readers sent us this email recently, asking for clarification on a significant jump on the crowd calendar. November park hours were recently updated, and they included extended hours at the Magic Kingdom to accommodate Annual Passholder Previews of the New Fantasyland. Whenever special events affect the park hours it creates a bit of a conundrum for the stats guys. Extended park hours historically indicate an expectation of large crowds, but special events such as passholder previews don’t usually significantly affect wait times at the other attractions. Usually, the increased attention is localized at the attraction being previewed.

What to do, what to do…

We had a similar situation on February 29, 2012, when the Magic Kingdom stayed open 24 hours for “One More Disney Day.” A regular day in late February would historically be an average crowd, but this day was packed, especially once evening hit. Wait times at the headliners stayed in the range of 70-90 minutes all night long. We had guessed that despite the special event, wait times would be normal. We were wrong.

This time we want to be conservative. We do expect the the wait times to be reasonable at most attractions outside Fantasyland, but the appeal of the official preview may be a big enough draw to cause a significant influx of people to the Magic Kingdom. So, we chose to keep the high rating. Like during the Food & Wine Festival at Epcot or Star Wars Weekends at Hollywood Studios, the wait times at the attractions don’t always tell the whole story of crowds at a park.

Regardless, we strongly recommend using a touring plan and taking advantage of the 8:00am opening whenever possible on these days. Think of it as your crowd insurance. If our estimates were too high, you won’t need to stick to it. But if it turns out to be a zoo, you will be prepared to survive one more Disney day.

“I know you guys know what you’re doing, but a 9.1 on November 14?” is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

Who will be the first to belly dance?

Who will eat the most baklava?

Find out as we Mo’Rock – it with Mo’Rockin in Morocco! 

Join us on Friday, September 7, 2012, as members of the TouringPlans.com team will be celebrating the 28th anniversary of the opening of the Morocco Pavilion in Epcot. We love to hear about how you and your family are putting your TouringPlans.com subscription to good use. Stop by, even if only for a few minutes to share stories, ask questions, and enjoy the Moroccan atmosphere.

All aboard the Marrakesh Express!

Where: Morocco Pavilion in Epcot

When: Friday, September 7, 2012, between 4:00 and 6:00 pm

What: A meet & greet with your favourite TouringPlans.com celebrities (the spelling should be a clue)

Why: Do we need a reason?

Announcing A TouringPlans.com September Meet & Greet is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

Predicting wait times at theme parks is s delicate science but we can get good results by applying the basic principle of statistical forecasting which is: if you collect enough good information about what happened you may be able to predict what will happen. When it comes to brand new attractions like those at the new Cars Land in Disney California Adventure, however, it becomes less about the science and more about experience. Cars Land has no history, no pre-existing wait time information to collect. So, we use our own experience and the experience of others to brainstorm ideas about what we think will happen.

Don’t get me wrong, this is not the first time we have had to deal with new attractions coming online. We have seen attractions like Expedition Everest, Mission: SPACE, Toy Story Mania, Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage and Star Tours 2: The Adventure Continues open their gates for the first time and greatly affect the touring conditions in their respective parks. Typically, we have seen that within 6 to 12 months a new super headliner will settle into its inherent level of popularity. Perhaps the only exception may be Star Tours 2, particularly in Disneyland where we still see wait times that are significantly higher than its predecessor.

Early reports of the new attractions in Cars Land are positive. It seems that these attractions are fresh, exciting and appeal to a wide range of guests. We are expecting that for the first 6 months of operation guests will flock to DCA in order to experience these new attractions for the first time. Some even think that their initial rush of popularity may even extend past the next 12 months. Will these attractions have significant appeal to lure guests to line up for a second and third ride? That is the ultimate question.

Our question for you is:

What do YOU think?

Dealing With Traffic Jams In Cars Land is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

It is no secret that our motto for successful touring is “Follow a Touring Plan” – heck , we built our name around it! Following an optimized touring plan is the single best way to beat the crowds at a Theme Park.

Still, it is helpful to know what the crowds will be like during one’s trip – for which we use the Crowd Calendar. Our crowd calendar is the best source for crowd statistics, anywhere. Is it perfect? By no means. But, on average it does a great job predicting what the wait times will be on any given day of the year.

We recommend that you use the crowd calendar to get a sense of what the crowds will be like during your trip and choose a touring plan that will ensure you wait in line as little as possible. We stress the use of a touring plan because predicting crowds is somewhat like predicting the weather, or predicting anything in the future for that matter. Predictions are always subject to a certain amount of error but when it comes to experiencing a theme park effectively, touring plans are the best insurance.

Here are a few of our recent letters about crowd predictions and using touring plans.

From Tony, a subscriber who visited the Magic Kingdom on June 5, 2012.

Just thought I’d let you know, volume was heavy at MK today.  My family of 4 was able to utilize a customized plan and hit all the attractions we wanted; went back today for a couple of do-overs and man-o-man, it was a packed park.  We got to the park at 10:30 and wait times for Big Thunder was already 60 minutes. Later, wait times for Big Thunder and Buzz Lightyear were 70 mins. Went to Epcot 6/2 and 6/4 and it did seem to be lighter traffic-wise, which according to your plans, it was forecast as 1.1, so that’s good.

MK however, was slammed.  I’d rate today as a 9 or even 10.

Thanks!

 - Tony

Here is what the Snyder family experienced after taking our advice and visiting the Magic Kingdom on Memorial Day.

Just wanted to tell you that Magic Kingdom on Memorial Day was as you predicted – a best park!  Lines at the Mountains were 30-40 minutes but we only spent 10 minutes or less on all the other rides and Fast Passes were easily obtained.  Thanks for suggesting MK as a best park.  Everyone thought we were crazy for attempting it.  We talked to others who went to Animal Kingdom and they said it was really crowded.

- Snyder Family, El Dorado Hills, CA

Rating crowds at Disney Theme Parks is a difficult proposition because there really is no such thing as a slow day. On June 5, as Tony mentioned, we did underestimate wait times at the Magic Kingdom but it is important to note that even on an average day, wait times at Big Thunder Mountain can hit 50 or 60 minutes during the mid-day peak. We are always looking to improve the crowd estimates and when a day occurs that doesn’t match our predictions we work hard to determine why. We are proud of our crowd calendar and its accuracy but there are always exceptions that prove the rule. We use the crowd calendar on all of our trips to manage expectations but always come armed, at park opening, with a touring plan in hand…just in case.

Crowd Predictions And Touring Plans is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

Every year in May the Stats Team reviews the crowd level predictions for Memorial Day weekend with great scrutiny. We do this because the wait time data that we collect from our fabulous Lines users and hard-working staffers tells us that Memorial Day Monday is a great day to visit the Magic Kingdom.

How can that be? Holidays are usually super crowded at the Magic Kingdom, right?

Well yes, that is why it always catches us off-guard. But Memorial Day seems to be a perennial exception to that rule because of the Extra Magic Hour at the Magic Kingdom on the Sunday evening. Guests seem to get their fill and save the holiday Monday for another park.

Due to a decrease in closing hour to 10pm, today’s crowd calendar update has lowered the estimated crowd level at the Magic Kingdom to 5.9, down from 8.6 and labelled it as the best park*. This is a little lower than what we have seen in years past on Memorial Day at the Magic Kingdom. Check out these wait time examples from last year.

Space Mountain (peak posted time was 50 minutes, actual peak was more like 40)

Buzz Lightyear (peak posted time was 40 minutes, actual peak was more like 15)

Big Thunder Mountain (peak posted time was 40 minutes, actual peak was more like 30)

Last year, these wait times translated to a level 6.8 at the Magic Kingdom, not bad for a holiday. If you find yourself in The Magic Kingdom on Sunday and Memorial Day Monday, let us know how it was. Were we right?

*Epcot was the park previously listed as the Best Park but is still a good option and listed as neutral. If you took our advice and booked dining reservations for Epcot for this day I wouldn’t change them, Epcot handles larger crowds well. If you have the option to visit the Magic Kingdom in the morning then hop to Epcot, that might be a good plan.

Memorial Day At The Magic Kingdom is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.

Similar to our recent post about adjusting dates for projected Halloween Parties at the Magic Kingdom, we have made some adjustments for the Christmas Parties based on recently released park hour schedules for November. On days when the Magic Kingdom is set to close at 7:00pm, we assume that a party will be scheduled.

Here is a list of the pending changes to the Crowd Calendar

• Halloween Party changed from November 1 to November 2
• Christmas Party changed from November 11 to November 12
• Christmas Party changed from November 13 to November 15
• Christmas Party changed from November 28 to November 29
• The projected dates for the remaining parties remain unchanged (November 6, 7, 9, 16, 25, 27, 30)

We had projected that there would be Christmas Parties early in November as there were in 2011, but the released park hours for November currently do not list a 7:00pm closing early in the month. We suspect this may change. We are therefore still projecting Christmas Parties to be scheduled on November 6 and 7, as well.

Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party – 2012 Schedule is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook.