TouringPlans.com Blog » Fred Hazelton

Crowd Calendar Updated – March 11, 2010

Fred Hazelton — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:17:09 +0000

After an incorrect upload yesterday, the Crowd Calendar has been updated. Changes you may notice are some slight differences in March due to Disney’s anouncement of new park hours. Also, some dates in September have new park recommendations that fall in line with the changes to Extra Magic Hours.

If you are planning a trip in Fall 2010, be aware that Disney may, as in previous years, announce a promotional program such as free Dining. When that occurs, it may have an impact on park hours, park schedules and our predictions for crowd level. Stay tuned…

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Crowd Calendar Update for September 2010

Fred Hazelton — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 19:23:35 +0000

The Crowd Calendar has been updated based on Disney Park Schedules for September. You may notice other changes as well as we updated projected park hours for February and March 2011. As a result of our ongoing data collection and thanks to many of you who have submitted times through LINES, many other updates may appear at other times of the year.

Our estimates of crowd size are unofficial and may change whenever Disney changes their park schedules, including changes to parade times, extra magic hours and park closing. Use the crowd calendar as a guide in your planning but also take into consideration the difficulty of getting advance dining reservations. It may be necessary to visit a park on on a day that is not recommended if you prefer dining at certain locations.

The Crowd Calendar is predicting a lot of days at level 4 through September and October. Be aware that if Disney announces a fall promotion, these predictions may change.

Note: The dates for Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party hard ticket events are projected. Disney has not released the dates yet!

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Tables In Wonderland Expands Restaurant Roster

Fred Hazelton — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:19:27 +0000

The only thing better than Sushi at Kimonos is 20% off Sushi at Kimonos. Ok, maybe a Karaoke solo by Len Testa would sweeten the deal too.

In January 2010 the Tables in Wonderland program announced that the list of restaurants accepting the card has grown. The Tables in Wonderland card is now accepted at the following additional locations. Click here for a list of all locations.

At Epcot

Tokyo Dining (Not Teppan Edo)

At Disney’s Boardwalk

Kouzzina (formerly Spoodles)

At Disney’s Wide World of Sports

ESPN Sports Cafe

At Downtown Disney

At the Swan and Dolphin Resort:

Kimonos and Shula’s Steakhouse both are ranked 4 stars in the Unofficial Guide and Kimonos has a 90% thumbs-up rating from readers.

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Crowds Larger Than Expected This Pre-Christmas

Fred Hazelton — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 05:27:42 +0000

Maybe Santa brought a few families an early Christmas vacation.

Crowds this week have been higher than expected, much more than the 7s we predicted on the Crowd Calendar. We’re seeing some posted wait times at popular attractions like Space Mountain and Toy Story Midway Mania in the mid-hundreds. If you are in the parks and experiencing these types of crowds let us know. Are these peak wait times the result of massive crowds or conditions with the attractions themselves? We’d like to hear.

It may be that the holiday festivities (Holiday Wishes, Holiday Parades, etc.) are bringing out the locals in large numbers. We historically don’t see a spike in wait times until the 24th of December so this week’s wait times have caught us off guard. We’re in the process of updating the Crowd Calendar and so it will be likely that the estimates for the next few days will go up.

Stay tuned…

Crowd Calendar updated December 21st. Crowds in the parks are stable but shut downs at Space Mountain are driving wait times artificially high. Our advice is to use Fastpass whenever possible for Spac Mountain since it is shutting down an average of 1-2 times a day.

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Rating the Crowd Calendar, November 2009

Fred Hazelton — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 04:00:33 +0000

Our Crowd Calendar predicted crowd levels of 8 at the Magic Kingdom during the week including Thanksgiving. Thanks to our crack research squad and our trusty users of our mobile application Lines we are now able to look back and see how we did. Historically, based on our current model, our estimates are accurate within 8 minutes, 95% of the time.

Crowd Calendar Nov. 21 - 28

We see on the chart from November 21 – November 28 that the estimates were pretty close with a couple of exceptions. Crowds in general were heavier than we predicted. This was partly due to the re-opening of Space Mountain.

Space Mountain re-opened on November 24th but did so with a sporadic schedule. When an attraction closes down many times during the day, the wait times tend to spike each time the attraction comes back online. The third column shows an adjustment for the spikes observed at Space Mountain. Even with the adjustment our estimates were too low.

We often get asked about what the crowd level index means in terms of crowd experience. “What does an 8 feel like?” If you were in the parks during Thanksgiving week, let us know how the size of the crowd affected your park experience.

Was the Crowd Calendar helpful?
How do you use the Crowd Calendar?
What information would make the Crowd Calendar better?

Our Crowd Calendar is always adjusting to the data we observe and we realize that like any predictive model it is subject to error. Still, we’re always curious how our readers use the calendar when planning their trips.

In the parks and want to know what’s going on? Try out Lines, current and future wait time estimates for every WDW attraction.

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Crowd Calendar Update

Fred Hazelton — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:44:40 +0000

With the recent changes to Park Hours, Extra Magic Hours, Parades Schedules and Fantasmic performances we took the opportunity to update a lot of the background data that goes into the Crowd Calendar. We collect thousands of pieces of data on hotel occupancy, weather, special events and of course, wait times at all the Walt Disney World attractions. Thanks to all of our readers who wrote, texted, Twittered and Facebooked the wait times while in the park. You can help us too – Click here.

Keep ’em coming!

Some information about the latest updates:

Ninety percent of the changes to the crowd level index were an increase or decrease by one index point.
Sixty percent of the changes to the crowd level index were a decrease. This tells us that in general, there has been a slight decrease in the wait times that we’re seeing in the park compared to historical figures.
Most of the changes to the recommended parks and parks to avoid were due to the schedule for Fantasmic showings. As we know, the lack of daily Fantasmic shows means that when the show is performed, crowds tend to flock to the Studios all day. If you don’t have any plans to see Fantasmic, avoid the Studios. If you want to see it, go on a day were the Studios are recommended by the calendar or when the Studios are not listed as a park to avoid.
Reminder: It is our humble opinion that it is easier to deal with a park on a slightly busy day than it is to try and re-book Advance Dining Reservations. If the crowd index is less than 8, its probably perfectly manageable with a good touring plan. If it is 8 or greater then it may be worth it to switch reservations around.

Of course, the Crowd Calendar is always subject to change. We can count on the park hours and schedules changing again as we approach the Spring season.

Happy Touring!

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Updates to Crowd Calendar Coming Soon

Fred Hazelton — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:24:51 +0000

Park hours, parade schedules, Fantasmic showings and all the other new Disney information is going in the giant TouringPlans.com hopper. A couple turns of the wheel, the push of button and a pinch of salt an we’ll have the updates incorporated into the Crowd Calendar for you.

An early glance shows that some changes to the recommendations for park days may occur based on the new schedules, specifically because of the new Fantasmic showings announced for November and December.

Stay tuned. We’ll post a blog when the final updates are completed.

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Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party on Nov 15, 2009

Fred Hazelton — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 17:48:16 +0000

Thanks to a tip from a reader we’ve noticed that Disney has added an extra Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party on November 15th, 2009.

We’ve added it to our Crowd Calendar.

Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Parties place an interesting twist on crowd levels and recommending parks. The shortened hours during the day coupled with the paid event at night make daytime (especially morning) crowds fairly light. You might see crowd levels of 4, 5 or 6 for these days. But the shortened hours also make it difficult to recommend the Magic Kingdom because unless you are using a park hopper ticket it is difficult to cover a full touring plan on a short day. That is why you might see the Magic Kingdom recommended on a day after a Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party.

This also means that for those of you with a ticket to the evening party daytime touring might make a lot of sense. You can cover the majority of the park during that day with light crowds then come back at night for the festivities.

Happy Touring!

Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party on Nov 15, 2009 is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook

Crowd Calendar Affected by Disney’s Recent Changes

Fred Hazelton — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 16:34:27 +0000

The increase in last minute vacation bookings has forced Disney to continue its recent practice of adjusting park hours and schedules on the fly. Park hours have been increased for certain days in July and August and Extra Magic Hour schedules for July through October have been affected as well. Since park hours and Extra Magic Hour schedules are key components of the Crowd Calendar estimates, the Crowd Calendar has been affected greatly. You may find that recommended parks and crowd index levels have changed for the dates of your trip.

With free dining causing lengthly queues for booking Advance Dining Reservations it is a wonder how Disney expects its guests to plan in advance while schedules are being changed.

Regardless, we remind you that your best use of planning time is to prioritize based on those factors that are most important to your travelling group.

Advance Dining Reservations are difficult to come by. Schedule your week based on the ADRs that you are able to aquire. Spending time planning out which park you should visit on a given day may mean that you are missing out on dining availability.
Consider using park hopper tickets to visit the recommended park on a given day then hop to the park with your ADR.
Using a Touring Plan is still the best and most efficient way to beat any crowd. Hence the name of the site.

The Crowd Calendar as always, is subject to change. Check regularly, especially right before your trip, to see if any changes have been made.

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Recommending Epcot During The Food and Wine Festival

Fred Hazelton — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 17:35:19 +0000

Our Crowd Calendar is recommending Epcot on Saturday, September 26th, the first weekend of Food and Wine Festival. Epcot will probably be busy (if not very busy) that day so some people might wonder “What kind of sick statistician would recommend such a thing?” We instruct our Crowd Calendar to make sure that each park is recommended at least once in a seven day stretch. So really, it comes down to a lesser of two evils scenario. With Friday, September 25th being the opening day of Food and Wine our model is choosing Saturday as the second best option. Rest assured, all days that weekend will be busy as locals flock to the park to check out this year’s festival.

Recommending Epcot During The Food and Wine Festival is a post from the TouringPlans.com Blog. Signup for a premium subscription today! Or get news via Email, Twitter, & Facebook