Crowd Blog

Disney World Crowd Report – June 22 to 28, 2014

by on June 30, 2014

Most school districts have completed the 2013-2014 school year now although crowds are still trending slightly lower than history would suggest. We saw few instances with wait times higher than predicted. Star Tours and other Studios attractions continue to operate with lower demand than usual.

Let’s look at the Disney World Crowd Report to see how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, June 22, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
6

The lucky number on Sunday was ‘6’, with all parks hitting a level ‘6’ except for The Studios. Star Tours was the big surprise on Sunday with an average wait time of 16 minutes (predicted 26). A 16 minute average posted time at Star Tours represents a ‘1’ on our scale. Star Tours continues to operate at a capacity higher than its demand.

Epcot
5
6
Hollywood Studios
6
4
Animal Kingdom
7
6

Monday, June 23, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Monday’s crowds were lower than expected except for Magic Kingdom. Our estimates at Magic Kingdom continue to perform very well with no predictions missing by more than two index levels (only Big Thunder Mountain Railroad and Peter Pan’s Flight missed by two). Although Animal Kingdom was not as bad as predicted it was still the busiest park.

Epcot
6
5
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
9
7

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

Crowds went up a notch as predicted on Tuesday. Epcot was the most crowded with Test Track reaching an average posted time of 103 minutes. Perhaps even more telling is Spaceship Earth’s average posted time of 31 minutes, a definite ’10’ out of ’10’ for that attraction.

Epcot
9
9
Hollywood Studios
8
5
Animal Kingdom
9
8

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

We correctly predicted another crowd level ‘9’ on Wednesday, this time at Animal Kingdom. Kali River Rapids had an average posted time of 65 minutes, a ’10’ on its scale while Expedition Everest stayed about average at 33 minutes. Dinosaur was very busy at a 41-minute average posted time. Star Tours continues to underwhelm with an average wait of 20 minutes, the lowest of the headliners by 40 minutes.

Epcot
6
7
Hollywood Studios
8
6
Animal Kingdom
9
9

Thursday, June 26, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Slightly smaller crowds on Thursday although no park dipped below the average, ’5’. Pirates of the Caribbean reached an average posted wait of 34 minutes which is as crowded as it gets for that attraction while most other Magic Kingdom attractions stayed closer to the park wide level, ‘6’.

Epcot
7
5
Hollywood Studios
7
6
Animal Kingdom
8
7

Friday, June 27, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
6

Toy Story Mania (81 minutes, predicted 106) and Tower of Terror (50 minutes, predicted 79) put The Studios crowd level two lower than expected although our estimates for Great Movie Ride and Star Tours were within one minute of their predicted average. Animal Kingdom wasn’t so bad either where the highest average wait was 54 minutes at Kali River Rapids.

Epcot
7
7
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
8
6

Saturday, June 28, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
6

Lower crowds than expected at every park except Magic Kingdom. The first time of the week we missed a crowd level by 3 index points (Studios and Animal Kingdom). Epcot’s numbers were only slightly lower than predicted with only Soarin’ and Test Track missing by more than 20 minutes.

Epcot
5
4
Hollywood Studios
7
4
Animal Kingdom
8
5
What to Expect This Week
June 29 to July 5, 2014
Disney World Crowd Calendar

Disney World Crowd Calendar

School is out and summer crowds begin! July 4th is one of the busiest days at Walt Disney World, chances are good that Magic Kingdom will reach capacity at some part of the day. Although still very crowded, The Studios is a great choice for July 4th festivities if you are looking to minimize crowds.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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Disney World Crowd Report – June 15 to 21, 2014

by on June 23, 2014

Two weeks ago on the Crowd Report we saw that the extension of the school year for some districts lowered the crowds levels across the resort. It appears that this past week may be the final week where we see that phenomenon. Crowds were one or two levels lower than expected this week but that was almost exclusively due to lower than expected wait times at Disney Hollywood Studios.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, June 15, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

No surprises on Father’s Day Sunday. All four parks came in within one of our predicted crowd levels and all were either a ‘6’ or a ‘5’. Star Wars Weekends brought higher wait times to the Studios than pervious weekends, including a 29-minute average wait at Star Tours. Despite hosting Extra Magic Hour evening until 2:00 am, Magic Kingdom stayed at a relatively calm level ‘6’ during the day with only Space Mountain (51 mins), Splash Mountain (56 mins) and Peter Pan’s Flight (46 mins) reaching an average posted wait time above 40 minutes.

Epcot
5
6
Hollywood Studios
5
5
Animal Kingdom
6
5

Monday, June 16, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Crowds at Disney Hollywood Studios have surprised us throughout May and June and continued to surprise us this week. A 10:00 pm closing plus Evening Extra Magic Hours until midnight would suggest a park crowd level around ‘8’ but attractions like Toy Story Mania (75 minutes), Tower of Terror (46) and Rock ’n’ Roller Coaster (53) had average wait times well below what history would suggest (predicted 102, 64 and 73 minutes, respectively). The phenomenon continues to focus only at The Studios. We saw ‘7’s and ‘6’s at the other three parks, as expected.

Epcot
6
6
Hollywood Studios
8
4
Animal Kingdom
7
7

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

Another very slow day at The Studios on Tuesday. Toy Story Mania averaged 69 minutes (predicted 99), Tower of Terror 37 minutes (predicted 64) and Rock ’n’ Roller Coaster averaged 53 minutes (predicted 70). Meanwhile, Animal Kingdom was very crowded with all attractions reaching a level ‘8’ or higher on our scale with the only exception of Expedition Everest (averaged 36 minutes, a level ‘6’).

Epcot
8
7
Hollywood Studios
8
4
Animal Kingdom
7
9

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

Wednesday’s crowds were the lowest of week, especially for Epcot. Soarin’ averaged 79 minutes which is only a ‘6’ on our scale and Test Track hit an average of 67 minutes, twenty minutes lower than expected. Overall, our predictions hit the mark again with Disney Hollywood Studios as the only exception, again.

Epcot
6
5
Hollywood Studios
8
5
Animal Kingdom
8
8

Thursday, June 19, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Again on Thursday we saw low crowds at The Studios. Toy Story Mania averaged only 69 minutes, very low for a Thursday in June with a park closing of 10:00 pm. Our prediction of ‘7’ for Magic Kingdom and Epcot looked good though, even though Magic Kingdom hosted Extra Magic Hour morning and remained open until 1:00 am.

Epcot
7
7
Hollywood Studios
8
4
Animal Kingdom
7
6

Friday, June 20, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
6

Slightly lower crowds on Friday with no park hitting a level above ‘6’. We will be interested to see how wait times look at The Studios over the next few weekends now that Star Wars Weekends have concluded. Will they return to stable levels compared to history or will it continue to surprise us with low wait times.

Epcot
7
6
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
7
5

Saturday, June 21, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
5

Saturday’s wait times were slightly lower than predicted across the resort although Epcot was a ‘5’ as predicted. Any park seemed to be a good choice on Saturday. Disney Hollywoods Studios reached a level ‘4’ which was lower than expected but similar to Saturdays during Star Wars Weekends in May and June.

Epcot
5
5
Hollywood Studios
6
4
Animal Kingdom
7
5
What to Expect This Week
June 22 to 28, 2014
How Crowded is Disney World?

How Crowded is Disney World?

Summer season is upon us so you can expect the parks to be crowded, hot and rainy in the afternoon. Park hours are long however so you have lots of time to visit in the morning, take a midday break and return in the evening for a full day of touring.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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FastPass+ Is Lowering Your Wait at Popular Disney World Rides

by on June 23, 2014

In April we took at look at How FastPass+ Is Affecting Your Wait In Line At Disney World. We saw a small increase in standby wait times for secondary attractions like Spaceship Earth and Pirates of the Caribbean, and a small drop in standby wait times for super-headliners like Space Mountain and Expedition Everest.

Here’s an update, using 278,000 wait times from Walt Disney World between February 1 and June 19, 2014:

How Fastpass+ Affects Your Waits in Line

Read the rest of this entry »

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Disney World Crowd Report – June 8 to 14, 2014

by on June 17, 2014

It appears that the extension of the school year for those districts that lost days due to winter weather is still affecting crowds at Walt Disney World. We are seeing crowd levels one to two levels lower than history would suggest. We suspect this may be the last week for this phenomenon however as most districts complete their school schedule this week. Star Wars Weekends continues to be popular although wait times at the attractions are near all-time lows. If you are a casual Star Wars fan and want to see what it is all about, you can do so and tour the rest of the park quite efficiently.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, June 8, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Lower than expected wait times during Disney Hollywood Studios’ Star Wars Weekends lowered the resort wide crowds to a level ‘4’ on our scale. Despite the popularity of the special Star Wars Events, guests touring the park continue to be spoiled with low waits, even at Star Tours where waits tend to be long during the festivities. All attractions at the Studios were significantly less crowded than usual, including a 28-minute average at Tower of Terror (predicted 48) and 73 minutes at Toy Story Mania (predicted 100).

Epcot
4
3
Hollywood Studios
7
3
Animal Kingdom
8
5

Monday, June 9, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
7

Monday’s predictions at Magic Kingdom hit the mark but elsewhere we saw crowds lower than expected again. Even Extra Magic Hour evening at Epcot was not enough to push the wait times above average, with Test Track averaging a 63-minute posted wait (predicted 82) and Soarin’ averaging 74 minutes (predicted 90). Animal Kingdom was the busiest park as predicted with Kali River Rapids averaging a posted wait of 56-minutes (predicted 50) and Kilimanjaro Safaris averaging 32 minutes (predicted 41).

Epcot
7
5
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
9
7

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

Animal Kingdom had the highest crowd level on Tuesday as well, tied with Magic Kingdom while predictions at all four parks fell back into normal ranges. Once again, crowds continue to be skewed lower than history would suggest, due to the extension of the school year for some school districts. Peter Pan’s Flight averaged 58 minutes on Tuesday (predicted 71) and Kilimanjaro Safaris 39 (predicted 53), otherwise attractions were within predicted levels. The only exception was Tower of Terror which averaged 110 minutes (predicted 59), likely an indicator that one of the elevator shafts was out of commission for part of the day.

Epcot
8
6
Hollywood Studios
7
6
Animal Kingdom
9
7

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

On Wednesday, Epcot became the first park of the week to have a higher crowd level than expected. Mission: Space (Green) averaged 47 minutes and Spaceship Earth averaged 32, both ’10’s on our scale. Other parks saw crowds levels within one of our predictions, including a level ‘8’ at Animal Kingdom, the highest level of the day as predicted.

Epcot
5
8
Hollywood Studios
7
6
Animal Kingdom
9
8

Thursday, June 12, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
8

Thursday’s Extra Magic Hour morning at Magic Kingdom brought in substantial crowds as predicted. Pirates of the Caribbean averaged 37 minutes and Jungle Cruise 58, a sure sign that the park was crowded enough to deserve its level ‘8’. The Studios was your best choice on Thursday with Tower of Terror returning to its typical average of 37 minutes and Toy Story Mania averaging 80.

Epcot
6
7
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
9
7

Friday, June 13, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

Animal Kingdom’s level ‘5’ brought down the resort-wide figure enough to miss by two points on Friday, although elsewhere at the other three parks all of our estimates were close. Magic Kingdom was slightly less crowded than expected with all attractions except for Haunted Mansion and Winnie the Pooh averaging posted times below expectations.

Epcot
6
6
Hollywood Studios
6
5
Animal Kingdom
8
5

Saturday, June 14, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
5

Surprisingly, Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom were good choices for touring on Saturday with neither park reaching above average levels, a rarity in June. In fact, no park saw wait times above a level ‘5’ on our scale, partly due to weather.

Epcot
5
5
Hollywood Studios
6
5
Animal Kingdom
7
4
What to Expect This Week
June 15 to 21, 2014

Crowd Calendar

Our school schedule database tells us that most school districts will complete the school year this week, including those that extended the end of school the year due to weather. That means that wait times will be above average most days between now and the end of August. This time of year also brings longer operating hours at the parks so there can be more flexibility for those who plan their touring plans well.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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Disney World Crowd Report – May 25 to 31, 2014

by on June 3, 2014

We correctly predicted the resort-wide crowd level every day last week except for Sunday where we missed by one. Wait times were at or above average for most attractions all week although wait times at The Studios in between Star Wars Weekends have been quite low. We expect that to continue so you may want to plan to visit mid-week to take advantage.

Let’s look at The Disney World Crowd Report to see how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, May 25, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
6

Peter Pan’s Flight (47, predicted 75), Space Mountain (41, predicted 77) and Winnie the Pooh (28, predicted 44) pushed Magic Kingdom’s crowd level to a ’6′, two down from the ’8′ we predicted. Meanwhile, we correctly predicted the wait times at Hollywood Studios would be the highest so far during this year’s Star Wars Weekends.

Epcot
9
9
Hollywood Studios
9
8
Animal Kingdom
9
8

Monday, May 26, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
5

Monday’s crowd at The Studios dipped much lower with Star Tours averaging only a 20 minute wait, half what we predicted. Tower of Terror also came in lower than expected with an average of 40 minutes (predicted 72).

Epcot
7
7
Hollywood Studios
8
6
Animal Kingdom
9
8

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
8
7

No surprises on Tuesday. Epcot hosted Extra Magic Hour morning and wait times peaked accordingly with averages of 81 minutes at Test Track and 84 at Soarin’.

Epcot
7
8
Hollywood Studios
4
5
Animal Kingdom
7
7

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Epcot’s wait times on Wednesday slipped a few index levels higher than predicted although not at Test Track where we predicted an average of 73 minutes and it turned out to be 63. At Magic Kingdom our predictions were spot on with Pirates of the Caribbean being the only possible exception (predicted 23, it was 33).

Epcot
3
6
Hollywood Studios
5
4
Animal Kingdom
5
5

Thursday, May 29, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Predictions did well at Magic Kingdom on Thursday as well with only two attractions missing by 10 minutes or more, and both those (Space Mountain and Splash Mountain) were over-estimated. Disney Hollywood Studios was the place to be with wait times barely reaching moderate levels at most attractions. Toy Story Mania (61 minutes, predicted 78), Tower of Terror (35 minutes, predicted 57) and Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster (47 minutes, predicted 58) stayed well below average. Mid-week wait times at the Studios have been low during Star Wars Season, possibly a new trend.

Epcot
5
7
Hollywood Studios
6
3
Animal Kingdom
6
7

Friday, May 30, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
6

Crowds were pretty similar across all four parks Friday although our estimates of ’7′ at Epcot and ’5′ at The Studios needed to be flipped. The ’5′ at The Studios was quite surprising for a Friday of Star Wars Weekend but the wait times were definitely low including 78 minutes at Toy Story Mania (predicted 101) and 33 minutes at Tower of Terror (predicted 60).

Epcot
5
7
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
6
7

Saturday, May 31, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
7

Saturday brought the third consecutive day of a resort-wide crowd level ’6′ with all four parks staying between a ’5′ and ’7′. The Studios wait times underwhelmed again while the other three parks all saw wait times slightly higher than expected. Wait times were higher at Animal Kingdom but not by a lot, Expedition Everest had an average wait time of 39 minutes (predicted 24).

Epcot
4
6
Hollywood Studios
7
5
Animal Kingdom
5
7
What to Expect This Week
May 25 to 31, 2014
“How

How Crowded is Walt Disney World?

May is over and soon, school districts will approach the end of their respective school years and we will see summer crowds begin. June can be a good time of year to visit if your kids are done school in the middle of the month, the peak of summer crowds will not begin until late June.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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Disney World Crowd Report – May 18 to 24, 2014

by on May 27, 2014

Crowds at Walt Disney World held steady last week with only one park reaching a crowd level above ‘7’ on our scale. Other than that, most days the parks were about average, between ‘4’ and ‘6’. Crowds at Disney Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom were more often lower than expected. In the case of the Studios, perhaps guests are pushing their Studios visit to the weekend to experience the Star Wars festivities. Highlights of the week included Star Wars Weekend and “Rock Your Disney Side”, the Magic Kingdom’s 24-hour summer kick off.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, May 18, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
6

Epcot and Disney Hollywood Studios went opposite directions from our predictions. Soarin’ and Test Track averaged 69 and 64 minutes respectively while Spaceship Earth averaged 24 minutes, a ’10’ on our scale. At The Studios Toy Story Mania reached an average wait time of 68 minutes, much lower than the 85 minutes we predicted.

Epcot
5
7
Hollywood Studios
6
3
Animal Kingdom
5
6

Monday, May 19, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
5

Monday’s predictions missed only at The Studios and only by one. Early week crowds continue to be much lighter than crowds later in the week, a trend that has been prominent through late April and May.

Epcot
3
3
Hollywood Studios
3
2
Animal Kingdom
5
5

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
5

Tuesday’s crowd at Disney Hollywood Studios was the lowest of 2014. All Studios attractions ended up as a ‘1’ on our scale. Toy Story Mania averaged 53 minutes while Star Tours and Great Movie Ride were a walk-on all day.

Epcot
4
5
Hollywood Studios
5
1
Animal Kingdom
5
6

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
5

Extra Magic Hour morning at The Studios brought a slightly higher crowd on Wednesday but not by much. Animal Kingdom saw lower than expected crowds as well. At Magic Kingdom the warm weather pushed Splash Mountain’s average wait time to 52 minutes, the highest in the park.

Epcot
3
3
Hollywood Studios
4
2
Animal Kingdom
5
3

Thursday, May 22, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
5

The Studios was the best choice on Thursday, as predicted. Other parks stayed close to predictions as well with no park averaging wait times above average.

Epcot
4
5
Hollywood Studios
3
1
Animal Kingdom
6
4

Friday, May 23, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Rock Your Disney Side! Magic Kingdom opened for 24 hours straight beginning at 6:00am on Friday morning. The crowd was dominated by locals and annual passholders who took an opportunity to experience a soft opening of the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. Wait times were moderate throughout the day so our prediction of a crowd level ‘6’ between 10am and 5pm proved correct. Friday was a surprisingly good choice to experience Star Wars Weekend at The Studios, which had a crowd level ‘2’.

Epcot
5
5
Hollywood Studios
5
2
Animal Kingdom
7
5

Saturday, May 24, 2014

  WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
5

Our predictions for Saturday put crowds higher than average for the first time all week. That turned out to be correct at Animal Kingdom and Epcot while Magic Kingdom and The Studios stayed average.

Epcot
7
8
Hollywood Studios
6
5
Animal Kingdom
7
6
What to Expect This Week
May 25 to 31, 2014
The Crowd Report

The Crowd Report

Memorial Day is over, so is “Rock Your Disney Side” but soon, school districts will approach the end of their respective school years and we will see summer crowds begin. June can be a good time of year to visit if your kids are done school in the middle of the month, the peak of summer crowds will not begin until late June.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

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Least Crowded Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party 2014 Dates

by on May 19, 2014

Nov204Last year I wrote about what we expected to be the least crowded Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party. It proved to be a very popular topic, so here I am again to review the information from last year and give you an even better projection for 2014. Make sure you check out our dedicated page for a complete list of dates as well as a thorough description of what the Christmas party is.

In short, if you’re looking for the best 2014 Very Merry Christmas Party to attend, we recommend Monday, November 10, 2014. Last year we recommended Tuesday, December 10, 2013, and it turned out to be the party with the 2nd lowest wait times by our calculation. The equivalent party for last year’s recommendation, Tuesday, December 9, 2014, comes in second on this year’s list.

Since I’m sure you’re wondering how we did with our recommendations last year, the answer is…eh, okay. There were several predictions that we nailed, but we had a few errors that we have fixed for this year’s recommendations. Here are the top 5 from last year’s recommendations:

Read the rest of this entry »

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Summer Vacation Schedules

by on May 15, 2014

The crowd levels at the Disney theme parks are highly correlated with school schedules. Most school systems have similar national holidays, but other breaks can very significantly. For the past few years I have been doing a blog post talking about spring break. Since Easter moves around the calendar year to year spring break dates can change significantly. Summer break is less variable year to year, but there is variation between school districts. The general recommendation for a summer trip is to go early or late to avoid the highest crowds. I’m here to help quantify what early and late summer means. Traditionally summer break is between Memorial Day and Labor Day, but most schools are only out a portion of this three month span.

Below is a chart showing the percent of students in school, between June 1 and October 1, 2014. We compute a different statistic for Disney World and Disneyland; weighting the data base on schools’ population and location.

Percent of students in school

Percent of students in school

Read the rest of this entry »

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Disney World Crowd Report – May 4 to 10, 2014

by on May 14, 2014

Overall the crowds we observed in the parks edged slightly higher than expected last week. Especially on Sunday when a three day stretch of heavy rain finally came to an end. Guests who stayed in to wait out the bad weather took full advantage of Sunday’s blue skies. Our predictions for the rest of week also tended to be on the low side although not significantly.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week:

Read the rest of this entry »

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Walt Disney World Crowd Report – April 27 to May 3, 2014

by on May 6, 2014

Predictions did very well again this week with only one prediction missing by more than two levels. Among the other 34 predictions, only 5 were off by more than one. Rain kept crowds moderate at the end of the week and despite some special events at three of the four parks, crowd levels were unaffected, as we predicted.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week.

The Crowd Report

The Crowd Report

The Walt Disney World Crowd Report
April 27 to May 3, 2014

Sunday, April 27, 2014 

Our prediction for moderate crowds on Sunday were accurate with a resort wide crowd level of ’5′, one higher than the ’4′ we predicted. Magic Kingdom and Epcot were also a ’5′ on our scale, about what you would expect for late April. The other two parks went in opposite directions from our predictions. The Studios ended up two levels lower than the ’4′ we predicted while Animal Kingdom was two levels higher than the predicted ’5′.

Read the rest of this entry »

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