Crowd Blog

Walt Disney World Crowd Level Changes December 2014 to December 2015

by on December 5, 2014

 

Average posted wait times (in minutes) between October 1 and December 4, 2014

Wait times are up at Magic Kingdom this Fall and we are refreshing the Crowd Calendar to reflect the new trend for the rest of 2014. In fact, Fall wait times are up across all parks compared to last year. Also, we’ve completed a complete review of school schedules and holidays, park schedules and travel trends for 2015 so you will see some updates throughout future dates as well. Despite the increases this Fall our crowd level numbers have gone down for much of 2015. This is because our predictions tend to be conservative the further into the future you go. Now that 2014 is coming to an end, we can be a little more definite about our crowd projections next year.

Crowd trends are dynamic at Disney World as they are in travel generally so these new projections may (and likely will) change. Use the calendar numbers as a guideline to plan your trip and if you have a travel date in mind, click Track This Day to get notified of changes.

Below is a list of the major changes by month.

 

Crowd Calendar Updates By Month
Dates Here’s What’s New
Dec 4-20 Magic Kingdom waits are up, so goes the crowd level for December. We especially noticed an increase to crowd levels on Saturdays when the park hosts extra magic hour evenings in between days with operating hours shortened by Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Parties. Lots of new ‘5’s and ‘6’s at Magic Kingdom, up from ‘2’s and ‘3’s. Pre-Christmas estimates at Epcot have gone up as well, look for Dec 20-21 going up by three levels to ‘7’ and ‘9’.
Dec 21-31 No major changes
Jan 1-14 A mix of changes to Hollywood Studios in response to some day-to-day variations we’ve noticed. Some ‘9’s and ’10’s have become ‘7’s and ‘8’s while some other have gone up a point or two. If there is an exception to the uptrend Animal Kingdom is it. We have a streak of lowering by two or more levels between Jan 1-13 at that park.
Jan 15-31 Our post-Martin Luther King Jr Day predictions were high last year so this Jan 21-22 sees some lowering by 4 levels at Magic Kingdom, and by 3 at The Studios and Animal Kingdom. Epcot remains stable with a few minor bumps.
Feb 1-14 No major increases. Several days at The Studios and Animal Kingdom were lowered, in line with similar levels we saw last year.
Feb 15-28 Stable numbers for Presidents Week and Mardi Gras, still ‘8’s and above although the good news is that post holiday numbers have dropped, likely due to the synchronization of the two holidays.
Mar 1-14 Some early March predictions have dropped at The Studios and Animal Kingdom, while Epcot and Magic Kingdom remain as is.
Mar 15-30 No major changes
Apr 1-14 Again, we’re seeing some lowering of crowd levels post-holiday. Easter week remains high at all parks but the week after is lower than before, especially at Magic Kingdom and The Studios. This follows from our collection of school holiday schedules – 98% of schools are back in session starting April 13.
Apr 15-30 Almost no changes to Magic Kingdom during this period, elsewhere some small adjustments.
May – December Other large changes to the calendar include some July days at Epcot increasing by 2 or 3 levels; lower numbers in late August and early September; and higher numbers for Thanksgiving and Christmas 2015.

 

If you are planning to visit a park whose crowd level has changed we encourage you to review your touring plan if you have not already done so. Also, make sure to re-optimize your plan every so often to ensure it uses the latest estimates of wait times.

For more information of what to do if the crowd level changes for your travel dates click here.

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Disney World Crowd Report – November 23 to 29, 2014

by on December 2, 2014

Thanksgiving week at Walt Disney World was very busy – even busier than expected. The graph of our average wait time index shows large crowds on Sunday and Monday, a dip on Tuesday (thanks to severe weather) and a return to holiday crowds for the remainder of the week. We under-predicted the crowds during the first part of the week but generally were accurate the second half.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the Touringplans.com Disney World Crowd Report:

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Disneyland Resort Crowd Report – November 23 to 29, 2014

by on December 2, 2014

As you can see on our weekly graph of wait times, we correctly predicted the shape of crowd flow last week and pretty much nailed the crowd levels as well. Overall, crowds were slightly higher than we predicted. Thanksgiving Day itself was the least crowded of the week, presumably since more guests chose to celebrate with their families at home rather than hit the parks.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the TouringPlans.com Disneyland Resort Crowd Report:

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Daisy Lauren’s Best Week Ever: November 27, 2014

by on November 27, 2014

Hi, Everyone! Welcome to the Best Week Ever here at Walt Disney World! This week we’re taking a look at resort decorations at Disney’s Animal Kingdom Lodge and Disney’s Wilderness Lodge, stopping by the Magic Kingdom to check out the new Peter Pan’s Flight queue, and wrapping up with a visit to Downtown Disney and Animal Kingdom. I have so much to share, so let’s get started! :)

And what better way to start than with the stunning lobby of the Animal Kingdom Lodge? After all these years I’m still amazed walking in here. I think it might be my favorite hotel (and not just because Jiko is hiding inside). The tree towering inside looks perfect and coordinates with all the garland strung around the lobby. While there isn’t much else at the resort in the way of Christmas decorations, what more could you ask for? Be sure to click below to see what else is new this week.

1

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Disneyland Resort Crowd Report – November 16 to 22, 2014

by on November 25, 2014

Disneyland crowd levels were up last week but not significantly so, except for Saturday. We tended to miss low with our predictions all week but we still managed to get within one index level of what we observed most days.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the TouringPlans.com Disneyland Resort Crowd Report:

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Disney World Crowd Report – November 16 to 22, 2014

by on November 25, 2014

After a surprise crowd level at Magic Kingdom on Saturday, November 15, we were very curious to see how crowds would pan out last week. Our predictions did well all week until, for the second week in a row, a surprisingly large crowd level ‘7’ at Magic Kingdom on Saturday. Disney Hollywood Studios showed some higher than normal crowd levels as well but in general, the crowd levels have been within normal limits of what we’ve seen in past years, with the exception of Saturdays at Magic Kingdom. In fact, Epcot’s crowd levels have been near replicas of previous years as the success of last week’s predictions show. This indicates we are seeing a change in crowd pattern rather than a change in overall crowd level (although there is some evidence that crowd levels are up as well). Regardless, in the coming days you may see some crowd levels change in December, especially on Saturdays at Magic Kingdom.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the Disney World Crowd Report:

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Universal Orlando Resort Crowd Report – November 16 to 22, 2014

by on November 25, 2014

To say last week was a slow one at Universal Orlando Resort is an understatement. Wait times at both parks stayed in the lowest levels of the year all week, exactly as we predicted. Even the weekend crowds could not muster a crowd level above ‘2’ on our scale.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the TouringPlans.com Universal Orlando Resort Crowd Report:

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Will Last Saturday’s Surprise Crowd Repeat Tomorrow at Magic Kingdom?

by on November 21, 2014

We don’t think so, but be prepared with a back-up plan just in case.

Our prediction for the crowd level last Saturday, November 15, was among the 1% of all our predictions that missed by more three index levels on our Crowd Calendar. There are a number of possible explanations, so it is difficult to pinpoint the correct one.

We have no days on record other than last Saturday where Magic Kingdom had a three day stretch that went like this:

  • Thursday with a Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party
  • Friday with a Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party
  • Saturday with evening Extra Magic Hours

So, it may be that this specific combination of park hours and schedules drives up attendance on the Saturday. If so, we may see similarly large crowds tomorrow. That contradicts what we normally see on a Saturday in mid-November, which is why our crowd calendar estimate remains at a level ‘2’ for Magic Kingdom tomorrow.

We are cautiously sticking to our prediction for tomorrow until we have sufficient data that suggests a new trend has arrived but we encourage Liners and TouringPlan-ers to have a back up plan just in case. You can make sure to arrive early, be prepared to park-hop, have lunch at a monorail resort, plan a longer mid-day break and use your Lines App to re-optimize your touring plan while in the park.

Remember, a touring plan is the single best way to beat the lines, no matter how crowded it is, and they especially offer great insurance against surprise crowds.

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Disneyland Resort Crowd Report – November 9 to 15, 2014

by on November 19, 2014

Days around Veterans Day historically see no significant bump in attendance at Disneyland Resort. This year seems to be a significant exception. Sunday through Tuesday saw crowd levels that bordered on extreme despite our historical information which would suggest crowds much lower in mid-November. As much as crowds peaked on Tuesday they returned immediately back to levels we would expect by Wednesday.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the TouringPlans.com Disneyland Resort Crowd Report:

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Universal Orlando Resort Crowd Report – November 9 to 15, 2014

by on November 19, 2014

Our predictions last week told us that Universal crowds would be about average the first half of the week then very low for the second half. We were half right. Crowds were low all week. In fact, last week constitutes some of the lowest crowds we’ve seen over a seven day period at Universal Orlando Resort.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the TouringPlans.com Universal Orlando Resort Crowd Report:

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