Crowd Blog - 3/8 - TouringPlans.com Blog

One of age-old things we work on is this: “How does a specific crowd level feel?”

It may seem like a simple question. After all, we have three really smart statisticians. We have nearly a million wait times from attractions in every park. We can tell you, to a decent level of accuracy, that next Wednesday in the Magic Kingdom will have higher waits than 47% off all the days we’ve ever measured at that park. But it’s really hard to convey “47%” into an idea of what the park will feel like. If you’ve never been to the Magic Kingdom before, the crowds on an average day may seem huge. But if you’ve only visited during holidays, the average Wednesday in May probably feels uncrowded.

Keep in mind that one of the best ways to avoid crowds is to have a Touring Plan. On days with the lowest crowd levels, it is difficult to have a bad time in the parks, even if you don’t follow a plan closely. On days with higher crowd levels, you may have downright miserable waits if you hit the park without a good touring strategy. As an analytical person, I’d like to see what those different crowd levels mean in a chart with pretty colors.

To illustrate this, I’m going to use the Touring Plans software to simulate the experience of going to the Magic Kingdom on days with ten different crowd levels. I’ll use three different touring strategies: visiting all of the attractions by walking clockwise through the park (i.e., starting in Adventureland and finishing in Tomorrowland), walking counterclockwise, and using an Optimized Touring Plan. The first two strategies may be simple, but many guests follow them.

All simulations use attractions from the Magic Kingdom One-Day Touring Plan for Tweens and Their Parents premium Touring Plan. I set the starting time at 10:00am because more guests arrive around that time than at park opening. And to keep the plans simple, I removed breaks and nighttime entertainment. Also, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad is not included since it’s currently closed for refurbishment. That leaves 16 attractions.

Not surprisingly, in this test the Optimized Touring Plans have the lowest waits. What is surprising, however, is that there is not immense variation in the total amount of time these Touring Plans take across crowd levels between 5 and 9. One reason you see a dip in the waiting times at crowd level 6 is due to variable capacity rides: Disney can add ride vehicles to an attraction to increase the number of riders at some attractions like “it’s a small world” and Splash Mountain. In addition, Disney adds more character meets and shows as the crowd level goes up. All of these tactics help reduce the number of people standing in line.

Another thing this demonstrates is that in Magic Kingdom a counterclockwise Touring Plan is more efficient than a clockwise plan. This is probably because lines build more quickly at attractions such as Space Mountain and Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin than they do at Pirates of the Caribbean and Jungle Cruise.

Finally, these examples clearly demonstrate why we say that using a Touring Plan is significantly more important than picking the right park or the right day or week to visit.

To minimize your time walking and standing in line, the Optimized Touring Plan software determines the best use of FASTPASS. Sometimes it is less efficient to backtrack and use a FASTPASS than to just wait in the standby line.

With the Personalized Touring Plans at TouringPlans.com, you can run the same simulations for your favorite attractions and dates. The new Evaluate option (see our video tutorial) lets you calculate the details (total time, wait times, walking times, etc.) of your itinerary for an attraction sequence that you define. Even with the best laid plans, anything can happen while you are in the parks; fortunately, we have you covered with the Lines mobile app, which allows you to re-optimize your plan on-the-fly based on current park conditions.

Finally, let us know whether you’d like to see more posts on the topic of “park feel” and crowd levels. Thanks!

The Disney World park hours were recently updated for May, with many operating hours extended for the Magic Kingdom, Disney’s Hollywood Studios, and Disney’s Animal Kingdom. There are now many days where the Magic Kingdom is open until 11pm and a few Saturdays where it will stay open until 12am or even 1am. In addition, many nights a second Main Street Electrical Parade has been added.

Hollywood Studios also had quite a few days changed, days where the park will now be open until 10pm. Most of those days will also see an additional showing of Fantasmic. Hollywood Studios also gains a few 8am openings in honor of Star Wars Weekends. Animal Kingdom had only a handful of days adjusted, those until 8pm.

The chart below shows all current park hours with changes in red. One warning that the hours for the Sunday through Thursday of Memorial Day week (May 27-31) have yet to be updated, so those will most likely change on or about May 14.

You will also notice some changes to our Crowd Calendar involving some of the changed dates. We recently began using our own internal projected park hours to give you the most accurate crowd ratings available. Using these projected hours has made our long-term crowd ratings more stable, but we are not perfect (well, some of us).

The crowd levels for a few days changed by more than 3, and I would like to explain our rationale for the higher initial ratings.

May 6, 7, 14, and 18: Magic Kingdom’s crowd level decreased by 3.1. For all four of these days we initially projected a closing of 11pm with two performances of the Main Street Electrical Parade. As seen above, on all of these days, the actual closing time is 10pm, and there is only one Main Street Electrical Parade.  The reason for the over-projection is because, on the equivalent days last year (first Sunday in May and so on), the Magic Kingdom was open until 11pm with two Main Street Electrical Parades. Seeing as attendance has been generally higher this year, we assumed the trend of longer operating hours would continue.

May 12: Magic Kingdom’s crowd level decreased by 3.2. This day we initially projected a closing of 1am, but the actual closing time is 11pm. Again, on the equivalent day last year, the Magic Kingdom was open until 1am.

May 24: Epcot’s crowd level decreased by 6.6. This was another error. Last year there appears to have been a special event on the equivalent day that was not removed from our projections.

We apologize for the changes, although we are happy that in all cases the crowd levels are now lower than they previously were. One thing you should be aware of is that Disney sometimes announces extended operating hours on the actual day of operation. We see the above dates as prime candidates for these last minute extensions, especially May 12 at the Magic Kingdom. These extensions are not necessarily something that can be planned around, but you should be aware that they are possible.

Thanks!

Similar to our recent post about adjusting dates for projected Halloween Parties at the Magic Kingdom, we have made some adjustments for the Christmas Parties based on recently released park hour schedules for November. On days when the Magic Kingdom is set to close at 7:00pm, we assume that a party will be scheduled.

Here is a list of the pending changes to the Crowd Calendar

• Halloween Party changed from November 1 to November 2
• Christmas Party changed from November 11 to November 12
• Christmas Party changed from November 13 to November 15
• Christmas Party changed from November 28 to November 29
• The projected dates for the remaining parties remain unchanged (November 6, 7, 9, 16, 25, 27, 30)

We had projected that there would be Christmas Parties early in November as there were in 2011, but the released park hours for November currently do not list a 7:00pm closing early in the month. We suspect this may change. We are therefore still projecting Christmas Parties to be scheduled on November 6 and 7, as well.

As Cars Land attractions at Disney California Adventure and Fantasyland attractions at the Magic Kingdom get closer to official opening, we find ourselves revisiting the question:

How long do new attractions stay popular?

We did a similar analysis before the opening of Star Tours 2 in 2011. See that blog post here.

Disney theme park enthusiasts love nothing more than the anticipation of a new attraction. Although the vast majority of park guests are relatively unaware of the new stuff, those in-the-know arrive in numbers large enough to make new headliner attractions incredibly busy in the early months after official opening. Star Tours 2, Toy Story Mania, Mission: SPACE, and Expedition Everest all experienced peak wait times over 100 minutes every day after opening. Only Toy Story Mania has maintained that level of demand.

So the question is: what happens to new attractions at Disneyland and California Adventure? Are the popularity lifespans of new attractions at the West Coast theme parks different from their Florida counterparts?

I was at Disneyland Park for the opening week of Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage in June 2007. The crowds were very large! Wait times were in the 90-minute range within the first hour of park opening and increased to 120+ minutes by mid-day. Lines filled the switchbacks at the loading area then wrapped completely around the lake and halfway around The Matterhorn. It was difficult for us to fit the attraction into a Touring Plan without a 30-minute wait. This attraction, although interesting and unique, is a slow loader. As a result, even arriving alongside the first 100 guests of the day meant a 20-minute wait in those early weeks.

Not enough data for error bars in 2007-2008

This continued for about 6 weeks before slowly decreasing, even though I, for one, was convinced that Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage would be a super headliner with high peak waits for years to come. But we see from the chart that by the second year after opening, wait times had decreased significantly. Compared to the first year of operation, this attraction experiences peak wait times about half as high. In fact, we see that the Nemo Subs are a good example of our rule of thumb that new attractions take about 6 to 12 months before leveling out to their true wait time potential. You can add Finding Nemo Subs to your Disneyland Optimal Touring Plan, and you shouldn’t have a wait of more than 30 minutes, even during busier times.

So, if you are as excited as we are to see Cars Land at Disney California Adventure and the New Fantasyland at the Magic Kingdom but not keen on waiting for hours, plan a trip about four to six months after official opening. Preferably, visit during a slower time of year. Fall 2012 would be perfect for Cars Land! And the good news is that whenever you do manage to visit, the attractions will still be brand new…to you.

On our Crowd Calendar we try to indicate dates when we think the Magic Kingdom will host Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Parties before the official schedule is announced, as a way to help our readers begin their initial planning. However, as with everything on the crowd calendar, this is subject to change.

Recently, the release of initial park hours (provided to Travel Agents) showed the set of dates in October when the Magic Kingdom is scheduled to close at 7:00pm. This gives us a way to double-check our guesses for dates of the Halloween Parties. Based on the current schedule, there are two fewer parties scheduled this year than in 2011, BUT that may very well change.

If you had planned to attend a Not-So-Scary Party and it no longer appears on our calendar, withhold your panic. It may re-appear when Disney revisits the schedule as the fall approaches and ticket sales start to roll in.

Earlier this month we posted an article about the June 15 Grand Opening of several new attractions at Disney California Adventure.

Many of you have asked how this will affect the crowds at the Disneyland Resort. Quite simply, we expect it to be a renaissance unlike any other in the history of the California Adventure Park: crowds, crowds, and more crowds.

We already learned that the park will be closed to the public and open only to invited guests on Thursday, June 14, 2012. And although official park hours have not yet been published, we have heard they will be extended for the duration of the summer following June 15.

Usually at Disneyland Resort we prefer to wait for officially announced park hours before updating the Crowd Calendar. In this case, however, we are prepared to take a leap of faith and make the adjustments, ourselves, while we wait.

In summary:

• The Disney California Adventure Crowd Calendar does NOT currently reflect the impact of the new attractions and the expected changes to the summer schedule.
• We are currently working on an update that will incorporate the anticipated changes.
• We expect the Disney California Adventure crowd level index to be 10 from Friday, June 15, through the end of summer.

Thanks for your patience!

Today Disney updated Walt Disney World park hours for March 2012. We are starting to get into a busy time of year, with many school districts’ spring breaks falling in March. The lengthening of park hours suggests that this March will once again have some very busy periods (as our Crowd Calendar predicted).

For an idea of how Disney goes about releasing park hours, you can read this blog post. Below is a list of March 2012 park hours with today’s changes in red (MSEP = Main Street Electrical Parade, EMH = Extra Magic Hours). Click to enlarge:

As you can see, Disney added many showings of Main Street Electrical Parade and Fantasmic! at the Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios, respectively. Animal Kingdom‘s hours were also adjusted, but Epcot remains on its standard 9am to 9pm schedule.

The rest of the TouringPlans.com website–including our Crowd Calendar–will be updated shortly. If you would like to be the first to know when the Crowd Calendar changes please sign up for our Crowd Tracker.

You know the commercial: the MVP of the NFL’s Super Bowl stands victorious on the field and proclaims, “I’m going to Disney World!” Well, the truth is that he really is going.

On Monday, February 6, 2012, the MVP will be given a special parade procession in the Magic Kingdom. The parade is currently scheduled for 1:20pm and is expected to travel up Main Street and through Liberty Square, presumably ending in Frontierland.

We do not expect this short event to impact the Magic Kingdom wait times considerably, but be aware that foot traffic in and around the parade route is likely to be heavier than normal. You will also want to keep an eye on the schedule if you plan to be at the Magic Kingdom because the time of this parade is often adjusted based on the schedule of the MVP.

It must be the middle of a month because Walt Disney World just updated its park hours for February.  Almost all days see extensions to the Magic Kingdom hours, and there are several days where Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Disney’s Animal Kingdom have had their hours extended, as well.

The most notable changes are on the weekend of February 10 and for President’s Day week.  All February changes are as follows:

February 3 (Friday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 4 (Saturday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 12am.

February 5 (Sunday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 10pm.

February 6 (Monday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 7 (Tuesday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 8 (Wednesday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 9 (Thursday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 10 (Friday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 11pm.

February 11 (Saturday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 8pm.
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 12 (Sunday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 11pm.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 8pm.
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 13 (Monday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 11pm.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 8pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!

February 14 (Tuesday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 15 (Wednesday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 9pm.

February 16 (Thursday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 11pm.

February 17 (Friday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.

February 18 (Saturday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 10pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 19 (Sunday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 12am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 10pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 20 (Monday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 10pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 21 (Tuesday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 9pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 22 (Wednesday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 9pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 23 (Thursday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 12am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 9pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 24 (Friday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

February 25 (Saturday):

• Magic Kingdom now closes at 1am and features 2 Main Street Electrical Parades.
• Hollywood Studios now closes at 9pm and features 2 showings of Fantasmic!
• Animal Kingdom now closes at 8pm.

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There were also minor schedule changes to other days in March, April, and June, and the preliminary hours for August were also released.  I do not list those here because they will all most likely change as each respective month approaches.  If you would like to see how Disney goes about releasing park hours please read this blog post.

Our Crowd Calendar should be updated very shortly, and our park hours on this site will be fully updated as well.  If you would like to be notified of Crowd Calendar changes you can always sign up for our Crowd Tracker.

Thanks for using TouringPlans.com!

As expected by many, Walt Disney World removed the morning Extra Magic Hours from the Magic Kingdom on March 1, 2012, and added a morning Extra Magic Hour to Epcot on that day.

The assumed reason for this change is because of the One More Disney Day promotion, which involves the Magic Kingdom being open from 6am on February 29 until 6am on March 1.

As a result of the Magic Kingdom losing that bonus hour on March 1, the morning Extra Magic Hour at Epcot on February 28 has been removed and an Extra Magic Hour has been added to the Magic Kingdom on that day.

Our Crowd Calendar will show this change soon. Thanks for using Touring Plans!