The “Best Days” page has been updated with new crowd predictions through April 2006. We’ve got almost seven complete weeks of data collected in the Magic Kingdom in 2005. The primary method used to predict future wat times was Excel’s multiple regression data analysis tool. A second method I used was Excel’s STANDARDIZE function on a couple of key statistics. Both of them were remarkably consistent, varying by more than +/- 1 fewer than 20 times out of 548 days. (We also completed the “Best Days” calendar for all of 2006.) In those cases, I averaged the two estimates. Because of rounding, I think the wait time estimates are slightly higher than what should be observed, but we’ll see how it goes for the next month before making changes.
For the rest of 2005, we used Disney’s published special events and standard Extra Magic Hours schedules when determining whether to recommend or avoid a particular park. For the 2006 calendar, I used the same rules for Disney special events. So, for example, if Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party is on most Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays in October 2005, I assumed they’d be on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays in 2006, too.
Incidentally, I went back and checked the average peak wait times for each day of the week through May 30, 2005. In order of highest wait times, here are the rankings:
3. Sunday / Friday (a tie)
There’s more than 20 minutes difference in peak wait times betweek Monday and Tuesday at the three Magic Kingdom headliner attractions. Saturday and Wednesday have moved the most in relation to our guest survey done earlier this year, while the top and bottom remain relatively unchanged. At this point, I think the day-of-week question has been settled (at least to my satisfaction), unless some extraordinary data become available.
Also, I’m still in need to some help in determining the number of each different hotel room type at some Disney resorts. Drop me a line if you’ve got a couple of free hours: email@example.com.