Crowd Calendar 4 Launched for Universal Orlando and Disneyland Resort

New Crowd Calendar methodology arrives at Universal Orlando Resort
New Crowd Calendar methodology arrives at Universal Orlando Resort

 

The methodology used for the TouringPlans.com Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar since November 2013 takes over the Universal Orlando and Disneyland Resort crowd calendars starting today. Crowd Calendar 4 has worked well for Disney World so we are confident it will perform equally well for Universal and Disneyland. See below for a synopsis of how the calendar has performed since November 2013. When we predict the crowd level (between ‘1’ and ’10’) we see that about 95% of the time the actual crowd will be within two index points, and about three-quarters (3/4) of the time within one.

 

Disney World Crowd Calendar Error Results since November 2013
Disney World Crowd Calendar Error Results since November 2013

 

We at TouringPlans.com are not usually ones to tout our own greatness but when it comes to the crowd calendar we are proud of how it has performed over the years. We are flattered by the onslaught of other competing calendars that have popped up since we first launched ours in 2004. Of course, as “numbers” people we track them and compare to our own. We are proud to say that the accuracy of our calendar outperforms them all. If you look at all the predictions out there for what the wait times will be ours is the closest to what actually happened 75% of the time. If this were a toothpaste commercial 3 out of 4 dentists would prefer TouringPlans.com. Here’s a table of how our estimates of average posted times performed in the last 30 days.

Average error (in minutes) over the last 30 days

Predicting Average Posted Times At Disney World Attractions

TouringPlans.com Nearest Competitor ANALYSIS
Walt Disney World (Overall)
9
13
Magic Kingdom
9
11

Accuracy is essential and we get closer than anyone else. Four minutes might not seem like much but remember, that is the average error per attraction. Most TouringPlans.com subscribers visit 15 to 20 attractions per day so over a typical day the cumulative difference will be an hour or more.

Epcot
8
13
Hollywood Studios
11
16
Animal Kingdom
9
12

 

Crowd Calendar 4 – A Synopsis

Here’s a quick refresher for what makes the new crowd calendar new. To read a complete description, check out this post.

Crowd Calendar 4 uses the average posted time at key attractions between the hours of 10:00 am and 5:00 pm. It still uses a ‘1’ to ’10’ scale but no decimal points. You are likely to see more ‘4’s, ‘5’s and ‘6’s and fewer ‘1’s and ’10’s. The fact is, most days at Universal Orlando Resort and Disneyland Resort, like Walt Disney World fall into those middle categories. Days that fall into the extreme categories are becoming less frequent, especially at the low end of the scale.

The new calendar means improvements to our attraction level estimates in Lines too. Here are the key attractions that we use for the calendars. These are the attractions that relate the best to crowds in the park.

 

Crowd Calendar 4 – Key Attractions
Disneyland Disney California Adventure Universal Studios Islands of Adventure
Alice in Wonderland
Astro Orbitor
Autopia
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters
Dumbo The Flying Elephant
Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage
Gadget’s Go Coaster
Haunted Mansion
Indiana Jones Adventure
it’s a small world
Jungle Cruise
Matterhorn Bobsleds
Mickey’s House
Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride
Peter Pan’s Flight
Pirates of the Caribbean
Roger Rabbit’s Car Toon Spin
Space Mountain
Splash Mountain
Star Tours: The Adventure Continues
Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sully to the Rescue!
Tower of Terror
Soarin’ Over California
Radiator Springs Racers
Mater’s Jamboree
Luigi’s Tires
Grizzly River Run
California Screamin’
Mickey’s Fun Wheel – Swinging
Toy Story Midway Mania
Goofy’s Sky School
Disaster!
E.T. Adventure
Men in Black Alien Attack
Revenge of the Mummy
Hollywood Rip Ride Rockit
Shrek 4-D
The Simpsons Ride
Woody Woodpecker’s Nuthouse Coaster
Dispicable Me
Transformers: The Ride-3D
The Amazing Adventures of Spider-Man
Dr. Doom’s Fearfall
Dudley Do-Right’s Ripsaw Falls
Dragon Challenge
High in the Sky Seuss Trolley
Incredible Hulk Coaster
Jurassic Park River Adventure
One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish
Popeye & Bluto’s Bilge-Rat Barges
Storm Force Acceleration
The Cat in the Hat
Flight of the Hippogriff
Harry Potter and the Forbidden Journey

We have two favourite parts of Crowd Calendar 4. First, it means that the calendar is more stable over time so changes to the numbers are much less frequent. Second, it is much easier to measure what happened and to compare to what we predicted. Watch for the weekly Disneyland and Universal Crowd Reports where we summarize what happened and how our predictions performed.

 

New Crowd Calendar methodology arrives at Disneyland Resort
New Crowd Calendar methodology arrives at Disneyland Resort

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.

One thought on “Crowd Calendar 4 Launched for Universal Orlando and Disneyland Resort

  • August 24, 2014 at 7:31 am
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    Hooray! We frequent Universal as much as Disney and this is great news.

    My dream would be for you guys to add Sea World Orlando as well in the future – as far as I know, there are no existing crowd calendars for it, so you’d have zero competition 😉

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