Disney World Crowd Calendar Report – January 18 to 24, 2015

Last week the Disney World Crowd Calendar did about as well as possible with its predictions. Park level estimates matched what we saw on four out of seven days and when we missed, it was only by one level. Crowds were busiest on Sunday and Monday during the long weekend (Martin Luther King Jr Day) then quickly faded to below average levels on Tuesday through Saturday.

Let’s look at how the crowd levels stacked up each day last week on the Disney World Crowd Calendar Report:

Walt Disney World Resort Crowd Levels – Daily Breakdown

Sunday, January 18, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
7
6

Our estimates for Epcot, Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom hit the mark on Sunday thanks to wait time estimates that didn’t miss by more than five minutes on average. Magic Kingdom was only slightly less crowded than expected.

Epcot
8
8
Hollywood Studios
8
8
Animal Kingdom
9
9

Monday, January 19, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

As is the case with some holidays that occur on a Monday (like Memorial Day in May) the wait times were higher on Sunday than on the holiday Monday itself. Only Magic Kingdom’s wait times matched what we saw the day before.

Epcot
7
7
Hollywood Studios
8
7
Animal Kingdom
8
8

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
6
6

Tuesday’s wait times dipped suddenly and significantly compared to Sunday and Monday. What were 40 and 50 minute waits became 20 and 30 minute waits on Tuesday.

Epcot
5
4
Hollywood Studios
5
5
Animal Kingdom
2
3

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
2
1

It is rare that we see a week when Magic Kingdom will see days that a rate a ‘1’ on our scale alongside other days where parks rate a level ‘8’ or higher but it happened last week. Pirates of the Caribbean averaged under a 20 minute wait on Wednesday after hitting 33 minutes on Monday – two days earlier.

Epcot
3
2
Hollywood Studios
4
3
Animal Kingdom
2
2

Thursday, January 22, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
2
3

Wait times were fairly even across all four parks on Thursday. We saw averages like 51 minutes at Peter Pan’s Flight, 56 minutes at Test Track, 59 at Toy Story Midway Mania and 23 at Expedition Everest.

Epcot
3
3
Hollywood Studios
4
2
Animal Kingdom
1
2

Friday, January 23, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
4
2

Epcot hosted Extra Magic Hour Evening and was the busiest park, as predicted. Soarin’ averaged a 67 minute wait (predicted 73) while Mission: Space Orange averaged 17 (predicted 21).

Epcot
5
5
Hollywood Studios
4
2
Animal Kingdom
2
2

Saturday, January 24, 2015

WHAT WE
THOUGHT
WHAT WE
SAW
ANALYSIS
Magic Kingdom
5
5

Magic Kingdom was the only one of the three parks predicted to hit a level ‘3’ on Saturday that actually did. Waits there were within a few minutes of predicted while waits at Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom were 5 to 8 minutes lower than expected.

Epcot
3
2
Hollywood Studios
5
3
Animal Kingdom
5
3
What to Expect This Week
January 25 to 31, 2015
How crowded is Disney World?
How crowded is Disney World?

Crowds in late January are expected to be below average. This may be the last week that we see low numbers until May. February waits are usually a few points higher as we lead into Presidents Week.

To see Walt Disney World Crowd predictions for the days of your vacation, check the Crowd Calendar.

To get details about our predictions of future crowds or details about crowds in the past check out the Crowd Calendar and select “Jump to Date” on the left margin.

Fred Hazelton

Fred Hazelton maintains the crowd calendar, theme park wait time models and does hotel rate analysis for the Unofficial Guides. He's also done the models for the new mobile wait times product Lines. Fred Hazelton is a professional statistician living in Ontario, Canada. His email address is fred@touringplans.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @DisneyStatsWhiz.