Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar Update for October 2018

October is here, and we continue our monthly schedule of updates to the Disney World Crowd Calendar.

Note that we had technical problems with the initial Crowd Calendar update around 10:00 PM EDT on Friday, October 5. As a result, you may have received an email update that reflected incorrect crowd level changes. We resolved the problem by 3:00 AM EDT on Saturday, October 6, and the crowd levels present on our Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar now are accurate. We apologize for any confusion!

This month’s Crowd Calendar update only has minor changes. Most days did not change, and where there is a change, it is only 1 point. Any change is related to park hour changes. Since July we have seen lower than expected crowds. September has the lowest crowds of the year and the observed data shows how low the crowd levels were.

Looking Ahead

The table below shows the monthly average crowd levels for the next 12 months.

Month WDW MK EP HS AK
October 2018 3.9 3.4 4.8 4.5 4.0
November 2018 4.0 4.0 5.1 4.1 4.0
December 2018 5.8 5.3 6.4 6.0 5.1
January 2019 5.0 4.4 5.1 5.5 4.3
February 2019 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4
March 2019 6.4 6.3 5.9 6.0 6.1
April 2019 6.5 5.8 6.6 6.2 6.4
May 2019 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.3 5.3
June 2019 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.6 6.3
July 2019 5.3 5.5 4.5 4.8 5.3
August 2019 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.0 3.8
September 2019 2.0 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.9

Changes are a coming.

Last month Disney announced date-based ticketing pricing. October 16, Disney will release the details for the new pricing scheme. One of Disney’s stated goals is to more evenly distribute attendance at the parks. We expect the new date-based pricing will only affect crowds slightly. Even before date-based ticketing pricing, other travel expenses had variable pricing.  Hotels, airlines, and rental cars adjust pricing based on demand. Travel patterns are primarily driven by work and school schedules.

Star Wars: Galaxy's EdgeAfter Galaxy’s Edge (Star Wars Land) opens in  2019 we expect a surge in crowds. Families are postponing their Disney vacations waiting for Galaxy’s Edge to open. If the date-based ticketing schedule includes all of 2019, it might hint at an opening date for Galaxy’s Edge. “Late Fall” is the only hint at an opening date. It will be interesting to see what Disney will do to promote Summer 2019.

Steve Bloom

By helping TouringPlans.com continue to reach the most accurate crowd level predictions, Steve finally found a way to meld his training in statistical analysis with a lifelong passion for Disney. He first visited the Magic Kingdom in 1972, just a few months after it opened. Now he enjoys frequent trips with his two kids. At age four his son insisted on wearing cowboy boots to reach the height requirement for Test Track, and his daughter believes that a smoked turkey leg and Dole Whip make a perfectly balanced meal. Even though she doesn't quite get it, Steve's wife is supportive of his Disney activities.

23 thoughts on “Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar Update for October 2018

  • October 5, 2018 at 11:23 pm
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    I am very confused by your assessment above. We are going to the parks Nov 3-7. You said the calendar had few changes, the ones that changed were by 1 point, and that they were due to park hour adjustments.
    During my dates, everyday changed in almost every park sometimes going from a 1 to a 5 which is more than 1 point. Also the park hours did not change at all.
    Such large changes should not occur so close to travel time as people have already planned their trips. Can you explain this please? Thank you!

    • October 6, 2018 at 12:54 am
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      Dawn-
      Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

  • October 5, 2018 at 11:40 pm
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    We are leaving Sunday morning and have our customized plans all ready to go. AK on our day to go, Thursday, went from 4 to 8. I re-evaluated/optimized our plan and the wait times did increase. Since the crowd essentially doubled, why are the times unchanged?

    • October 6, 2018 at 12:55 am
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      P-
      Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

  • October 5, 2018 at 11:51 pm
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    We are going March 9 – 16, 2019 and crowd index increased every day. Some days the index doubled from a 5 to a 10. Is there some event happening that we don’t know about?

    • October 6, 2018 at 12:56 am
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      Joni-
      Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

  • October 6, 2018 at 12:02 am
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    January 3rd AK went from a 5 to a 10!! ? Why?

    • October 6, 2018 at 12:57 am
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      Sara-
      Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

  • October 6, 2018 at 12:22 am
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    We are going to WDW end of June 2019 and I got an email stating crowd levels have increased across the board, up from 6 to 9 at AK one day for example. We are going on a Monday and Tuesday, will parks really be a 9 midweek??

    • October 6, 2018 at 12:58 am
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      Sierra-
      Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

      • October 6, 2018 at 8:17 am
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        Thanks looking better now. Still curious about weekdays vs weekends end of June. Weekdays showing higher numbers than weekends? I thought weekedays were usually less crowded? Thanks

  • October 6, 2018 at 12:50 am
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    Similar comments to those above. Are these dramatic increases because of the new seasonal ticketing? Or was this just a miscalculation?

    • October 6, 2018 at 12:54 am
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      Scott- Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

      • October 6, 2018 at 1:00 am
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        Phew! Thanks Steve! Hope it’s not too stressful a fix!

  • October 6, 2018 at 12:53 am
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    Sorry, There was a problem with the update. New data will be available after 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

  • October 6, 2018 at 5:00 am
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    Ok so obviously the 1AM has passed so any info on this last email I received is correct since it came after 1 am? My December dates have pretty drastic changes 5 to 9, 4 to 10 etc how long until said changes hit the dashboard ?

    • October 6, 2018 at 7:29 am
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      I assume you are looking at a cached version of the webpage. Check the web page again, and refresh the page. If you are still having problems. send me an email, steve@touringplans.com, with the specific dates and I will look into it.

  • October 6, 2018 at 5:07 am
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    Steve,
    Thanks for the update, looking forward to 1AM E.S.T. October 6, 2018.

  • October 6, 2018 at 5:26 am
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    We’re going in March next year and some of the crowd figures have doubled or more, from 4 to 10, especially for Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios. What’s going on?

  • October 6, 2018 at 5:56 am
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    I see that an update email went out for Universal a few hours after the first one that had a similar jump, reversing most of the increases. I’m praying that we get something similar for the Disney dates! I expect you’ve had a long and late night if these have gone out all wrong, thoughts are with you Steve!

  • October 6, 2018 at 9:43 am
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    I am surprised to see how low the crowds remain. We are headed to WDW the week after Thanksgiving and I have never had so much trouble booking ADRs or FastPasses as I have had this trip. (7DMT fully booked 60 days out?!) I chalk this up to staffing; we always visit in Juky season so they are peak staffed. But our friends have traveled in the off-season and say this is unusual, and they expect big crowds. Any thoughts on this?

  • October 6, 2018 at 9:46 am
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    * That’s “July” not Juky season. That’s what happens when you combine “July” and “Peak Season”.

  • October 6, 2018 at 9:55 am
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    You guys gave me a panic attack this morning when I saw the email with huge increase in crowds for my upcoming trip! So glad this was just a glitch! Thanks for all your hard work : )

Comments are closed.